Crude Oil which touched a high of almost $120 in international markets has fallen heavily in last couple of days .
However signals were already available on the price charts of an 'impending downmove'. ( The power of charts, shall we say ????)
The above chart of Crude Oil on MCX clearly shows a 'negative divergence' on the RSI and MACD two commonly used indicators.
After touching a high of Rs 4785 it has fallen to current level of Rs 4500.Indications are strong that in coming days it may most likely test sub-Rs 4400 initially and then still lower levels of Rs sub-Rs 4200/-.
When Crude was at $120 levels, analysts on major TV channels suggested $150 in the next few weeks, while the Price charts are saying something opposite!!
It will be interesting to track both - the analysts target as well as the targets of the price charts
Happy observing ! (i presume none of you trade crude)
CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
7 comments:
This is perfect! It is one of holy Grail finds!
As you said none of us trade in Crude Oil...which is true...
How about SHORT ONGC as I think it will be bad for them if crude is cheap
AND
LONG on any of IOC, BPCL and HPCL for this will be good for them?
Hi. I think for long term its good thing to be happen. Higher crude prices keep very long tense on world economies, and a major factor in worldwide commodity price rise.
Sir, whats the downward trend in crude impacts on gold price? Pls explain.
Usually Gold and Crude go together , but in recent times they have had a tendency to walk their individual movements
At current juncture , Crude as well as Gold seem more likely to go down than up . ..
Rajiv Crude is still rising and also I don't see divergence in MACD in my data. Is data on Icharts correct? I am having MCX direct feed ?
here is chart
http://man4urheart.blogspot.com/2008/05/blog-post.html
The recent move beyond the indicated (negation) level of 120.50 has not confirmed the divergence ...
I shall revisit the Crude oil Chart in following days ...
Rgds
CA Rajiv
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