CRUDE OIL - ready to BOIL !!!

While the stock markets are seeing selling in most markets on back of weakening economies around the world, GOLD rallied yesterday to near $900 !!

In fact, on 19th Jan I had evaluated(on this blog) Gold (on MCX) and indicated that one must be ready for a rally. SILVER too is attempting to touch Rs.20,000 in days to come.

I presume, CRUDE OIL is the next commodity to rally. The chart formation is suggestive with positive divergences as well as a double bottom of Rs 1750/- on MCX.



I expect Crude to rise to near Rs 2500/- on MCX where it may find resistance / profit booking. Also my longer term indicators (not shown here) too are suggesting a high probability of change in trend. It may not theferfore be prudent to be bearish on Crude at current levels !!!

Happy Trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
Head of Research & Training
Jhaveri Securities Ltd.

NIFTY - breaking crucial ground !!!

The Nifty gave a sell off in the last hour of trading and broke the important support level of 2720.

The already weak indicators are now turning weaker and suggesting a further move downward to 2635 - 2575 levels in the coming days.



Consider 2760 and 2790 as the crucial resistance level in any corrective upmove.

Index heavweights like State bank, Reliance and Larsen are at crucial support levels and if these break , it will further push the indices downward.

The world indices like Dow , FTSE, Hang Seng and Nikkie are all already in strong sell mode and may have a cascading effect on our markets!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
Head of Research and Training
Jhaveri Securities Ltd.

GOLD - readying for an upmove ?

Is Gold readying for a rally ?

The longer term RSI seems to suggest so !!!

Watch it!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala

NIFTY - down break out !!!

NIFTY gave a down break out of the multiple support level of 2810 yesterday and closed below that level. The RSI in fact was already providing advance warning signals of a down break.

On break below 2810 , now, the downward target initially was 2740 and below that 2670 - 2615 levels.



Nifty's close today is just at 2744 and i expect that a break below 2725 tomorrow (jan 14) should lead to further selling pressure towards the indicated levels. You may also notice the downward expansion in the bollinger bands.

Index heavy weights are negative and some technology stocks which were out performing till yesterday, may show some signs of fatigue.

Upmoves are facing resistance near 2800-2825 zone.

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala

"Imagining Books of Accounts" by Ramalinga

Nandan Nilekani recently wrote "Imagining India". But he may have not been aware that his peer Ramalinga has been writing "Imagining books of accounts" for a long time now!!

What a Shame !- India's fourth largest software company's chairman says whatever you see on the balance sheet is false and cooked up!!! And also imagine - the analysts at major brokeing firms and institutions kept themselves busy evaluating the company's prospects on these 'arbitrary' figures !!!

If a person like Ramalinga do it , to what extent can we rely on others ???

Should we call it the "FALLACY OF FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS ??"

The Satyam stock took the 'air' out of the markets. Hardly did we see a revival in prices and almsot a break out on charts - and the Satyam episode ruined it !



Technically we may say that one should now become bullish only above 3150. Also a break and close below 2855 will be negative for the markets and in such a case we may test 2740 - 2600 levels in the near furture.

Lets keep our fingers crossed and hope that this is not the tip of the iceberg !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
Head of Research and Training
Jhaveri Securities Ltd.

USD INR - heading toward Rs 46 ????

The NIFTY today broke above the crucial resistance being indicated for some time of 3080 and 3120. Presumably , it is a good sign and one should see some more action on the charts.

Generally the USD INR goes in the opposite direction of the Indices (though this inverse relation may not be on a daily basis) . Hence we may expect that the USD will weaken - the Rupee would appreciate.



The chart suggests that there is strong resistance at Rs 49.20 levels which may be treated as the stoploss for any short sell positions. Also a break and close below Rs 48/- should give a target near to Rs 46 which is the 50% retracement level. ( The USD INR has already tested the 38.20 retracement earlier)

We shall keep tracking this in days to come.

Happy Trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
Head of Research & Training
Jhaveri Securities Ltd.

Nifty - near crucial break out !!!

NIFTY - touched the indicated level of 3080 and closed 3053.

On closing basis it is very near to the falling trendline / break out level. I expect that the break out on the bar chart as well as on the closing price chart can be simultaneous.



As the chart suggest, traders and investors may consider a close below 2800 only as a stoploss for any medium term long positions held.

(Many a times it is useful to check the closing price / Line charts to get a better idea. Though I regularly do it, I presume this is the first time I have shown it on the blog)

Happy trading !!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
Head Research and Training
Jhaveri Securities Ltd.