Nifty - On dangerous grounds !

Friends, I am delighted to tell you that the launching of my Academy - a dream project - had a thundering start!! I thank all of you for the continuous support you have given me over the years and this will make me stronger in future. Thanks !

The markets - they got a reason they seem to be waiting for. The Dubai debacle acted as the trigger for a sell off in an overvalued and nervously bullish market. In my previous blog on the day of Nov expiry - I indicated that Nifty 5050 was 'crucial' and if broken, may lead to a further sell off.



Well it seems that now 5100 + levels may be difficult to cross at least in the next few weeks and we can look for an immediate support at 4750. Below this I shall exit any longs in the market and may be shift my energies towards options, currencies and commodities.

The medium term indicator - ADX DI seems to be suggesting ' Caution - Danger ahead'

Well for now we have a situation of 'Caveat Emptor' (Latin words for 'Buyer Beware')

Happy trading! and remember - Don't fear the markets, respect them!!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

NIFTY - Nov Expiry at ? ? ?

Hello Friends !.. Sorry for updating every second day. As you all are aware I am fully concentrating my efforts right now of the Launch of my Academy - on this Saturday 28th Nov. !!


I am sure that those of you who are in and around Baroda will attend the Launch and make the event a success. (Details at www.investogyan.com)


As for the Nifty - it is behaving as it usually does . And yes whenever I see the top gainers of the day having defensive stocks like ITC and HLL , I become extra alert! What's cooking ???



Well , time shall surely tell but the intraday charts are suggesting a very crucial support at 5052 and a break below this tomorrow may give way to a further sell off.

And before I forget - while one of your favorite TV channels is 'exploring' an 'informed(?)' discussion on the similarities of the current rise with that of Jan 2008, I presume the price behavior is still not suggesting such an extreme situation. Well we can understand - they need something to keep the register ringing !!

Well this much for now - See you at the Academy !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

LT . . Too long a correction !

My Blog readers who traded in Gold , Silver and Copper sure must be partying right now!! Commodities are on a roll. Nifty on the other hand seems to be stuck in a range in search of a direction.

One of the few frontline stocks Larsen seems to be finding strong resistance at Rs 1700 levels while support is now important at 1500/-. A break out of this range should only decide the next move (Wow - a great opportunity for derivative traders )



Moreover while the price pattern looks like a triangle - it may not be actually defined as a triangle (Why ? - Think hard)

The charts suggest that upside break out may not give a heavy move but a downside break out can be fast and deep. All investors in the stock - keep SL at 1500/-

Happy trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

JSW Steel - Buy on rumor , sell on Fact !!

The Nifty is unable to sustain beyond 5100 which fact is suggestive of topping out. Today's close below 5000 would suggest immediate support at 4940 and a close below this would indicate further weakness.

Today's hot news was the 10% stake sale by JSW Steel to the 6th largest steel company in the world -Japanese Steel maker JFE.

The scrip immediately hit my radar since we can once again prove that prices run ahead of fundamentals. The price of this stock was rising for the past few days from near Rs 650 level on Nov 4 to today's high of Rs 1039/-.



Woops, a technical analyst tracking this stock would have gained most of the rise, even though not aware of the deal, while a fundamental analyst/ investor would only today come to know of a 'good news' !!!

Perhaps at this juncture one should remember the market saying - "Buy on Rumor , Sell on the Fact" -

Fundamental Investors - if you have missed this rise , wait for a correction before jumping in ! The news are good but the timing for purchase is wrong !! (Did I hear someone say it is bad to time the market????)

I presume you can get the stock below Rs 800/- in days to come !

Happy watching !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

COPPER - imminent upside break out !

While Gold touches a new high beyond $1130, Silver which is lagging behind could soon be catching up... And if that is so, a rise in Copper too cannot be far away.

COPPER has been consolidating in the Rs 280 and Rs 310 range for some time and a break is near. The most likely break out is on the upside given the technical indicators strength.



Traders may want to buy the commodity on break out now beyond Rs 310 with a strict stop at Rs 299 for a target initially at Rs 319 and then in the Rs 339-345 range.

Not a bad trade given that many international metals are on the rise.

Happy trading !
CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

ICICI Bank - Bearish Engulfing !

The NIFTY seems to be getting selling pressure above 5000 level. Consider immediate support near to 4895 tomorrow for intraday below which a further selling may be expected intitially towards 4865 - 4855

Banking stocks saw some profit booking and selling at higher levels. ICICI BANK in fact has formed a 'bearish engulfing candlestick pattern' on the daily charts.



Resistance to the stock is strong at 930+ while immediate support is near Rs 880/- in intraday. A break below this should create a short sell trade with stop at 930 and target of Rs 800 - 785.

I presume traders may cover their short sell near Rs 775-800 as this is a support area.

Happy trading !
CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

Neyvelli Lignite - consolidation ending!

The Nifty went past the 61.80% retracement level as it shot up beyond 4950. While the price movements in intraday have been quite profitable, the daily charts still remain in sell mode. Advanced indicators still suggest that the rally is 'corrective' in nature.

After recent annoucements, PSUs have been in limelight and one of my favorites is Neyvelli Lignite (yes fundamentally too) .



The scrip seems to be in a consolidation mode between 120 and 145 and I expect a break out above Rs 145 should lead us towards targets near Rs 180 and beyond. Also Rs 110-120 price range is a good support area for the stock where investors may want to accumulate further (obviosuly after checking the charts).

Keep an eye on the volumes and volume based indicators too. . .

Happy trading !
CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

Bharti Airtel - Wake up Call !

The Nifty broke the resistance of 4850 today and closed higher on back of positive cues from the world markets...

Still treat this as corrective in nature as the major indicators are still in sell mode.

Bharti Airtel is one stock which has been hammered and I presume there are enough indications that the stock has been a victim of over-reaction (as usual)...



Consider a break out level of Rs 320 and major support level of Rs 299. A break out above Rs 320 should give targets in the range of 355 to Rs 370... Return to risk favors the buyer now! .

Short term traders may want to jump in and take benefit!

Happy bottom fishing - should we say ?

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

CNX IT - losing momentum

The NIFTY yesterday touched a high of 4836 vis - vis my given target of 4845 on the previous day... It has closed below 4800..

The CNX IT has been one of the better performing sectoral indices. The CNX IT gained convincingly from the March lows of 2000 to the recent high of 5200... Impressive - considering that most investors and traders were busy with Tiscos and Reliances while the Infosys and Wipros of the world rallied.

That's the way the markets are... Stocks which most people are following , tend to under perform ...



The CNX IT index is currently showing signs of fatigue and losing momentum. Consider 4875 as the crucial support and a break and close below this level should give investors and traders an advance warning to book profits in their IT stocks and encash the mullah!

The level of 5200 is a crucial resistance and unless this is crossed, booking profit is more advisable !

Happy profit booking,

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

Nifty becomes volatile ... as anticipated !

The last 3 days of NIFTY movement can be called nothing but "a trader's delight" !!

In my earlier blog post I had indicated that the Nifty is likely to become volatile. And the last 3 days movement has surely been so. {Also I am sure my blog readers could trade RCOM on break above Rs 170/- .... }



Today's movement towards the first retracement level has been with clear signals on the intraday charts (Those who have attended by advanced course should have traded extremely well in last 3 days especially)

Considering the short term RSI (parameter excluded from analysis), the immediate resistance to the Nifty is at 4785, above which a strong resistance should come near 4845 levels... This can be used as the profit booking level for intraday longs.

Watch the 4688 level. A close below this should now suggest the end of the corrective rise (and resumption of the down move).

Happy volatile trading !!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

SILVER - Get ready for the next move. .

The Nifty moves up on correction today . As indicated yesterday, the overall structure remains weak and traders must use this upmove to lighten their longs...

Coming to Commodities, GOLD made a new high yesterday at Rs 16500+ ( I had analysed gold a few days back, I am sure those of you who traded in Gold on the indicated break out of Rs 16000, are smiling from cheek to cheek!! )

SILVER on the other hand seems to have slightly underperformed Gold. But it is time now to have a re-look .....



Silver is taking rest at present and is forming a 'rectangle continuation pattern'.. A rise above Rs 27500 should give a good break out and medium term traders can target a move towards Rs.30,000/-. Keep stoploss at Rs 25750 being the crucial support level.

Commodities markets are likely to perform better than equity markets in the near term - No doubt today's traders need to trade in multiple markets!!!!

Happy trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

R Com - time to Cover Short !!!

The Nifty moved as analysed . Break below 4730 has created heavy selling pressure and I have indicated target of 4400 levels. While we may see some corrective rise after today's fall, the overall trend still remains weak and there are also no specific signals of bottoming out yet. . . .

Among the stock which started crashing before the markets did, was RCOM. But at the current juncture, the risk - return has twisted in favor of buying ! ...



If you are short, you may cover your position and book profits. Aggresive traders may actually enter the stock on break above Rs 170 with a stoploss near to Rs 160. Target should be initially Rs 190 and then near Rs 210.

Happy Trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

BankNifty - targeting 7000 !

The Bank Nifty was one of the better performers of the recent rallies. It almost tripled from 3300 in March to near 9600 in Oct before closing near 8400 last week.

The RSI oscillator has shown weak since 9000 levels while the MACD indicator too signalled caution during this period.



Immediate support is at 8350 levels and a break below this should lead us towards 7000 levels in the next few days ... Resistance on upper side remains strong at 9000 which can be used as the stoploss for short sell positions.

Those investors who may be holding banking stocks may book profits and wait for the correction to re-enter...

Happy profit booking!
CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.