Tuesday, July 21, 2009

CRUDE OIL... will upmove continue?

Will CRUDE OIL break the recent high of $72... equivalent of Rs 3500/- on MCX??

There are opposite but convincing views - one view suggesting a fall while another suggesting a rise. ..

And in such confused scenario, we obviously turn to our price charts . Mr Market, as they say, is always right.



Incidentally, Crude has retraced exactly 38.2% of the entire fall from its peak to the recent crash (see chart). It is now in correction mode. I expect support to crude oil near to 2800-3000 range and a temporary resistance at 3400-3500...

Once the resistance of Rs 3500 is broken , a fresh rise should start...

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
Head of Research & Training
JHAVERI Securities Ltd.

1 comment:

Praveen Vishnu Shamain said...

Dear Mr. Rajiv,

I have an academic question on FII trading in "derivatives" and their trading figures published by SEBI.

I am just confused with these figures and not able to figure out how to analyse them.

Kindly help me in this regard.

Trading Day - Thursday, 23rd July, 2009

FII Index Futures Bought - 91779 contracts
FII Index Futures Sold - 84576 contracts

Open Interest - FII Index Futures - 456468 contracts

Previous day Open Interest - FII Index Futures - 397319 contracts

My question is on Thursday, FII's have net bought 7203 contracts (91779-84576).

But, how come their open interest increased by whopping 59149 contacts (456468-397319).

I would be grateful, If you could explain to me the nitty gritty of these figures and to analyse them.

Thanks in advance.

With Regards,
Praveen Shamain