Nifty - negative weekly close

Global cues and markets are not at all in favour of stabilization of the financial markets with the US still hung over the 700 billion Dollar bailout. Many analysts feel that whether the bail out occurs or not - the US may be heading for further trouble.



The Nifty has given a negative weekly close and the daily charts are in fact also suggesting a further down move, initially to test the previous low of 3800 and a break below which one can expect the target of 3600 levels.

Happy (?!) trading
CA Rajiv D Khatlawala

SBI - can u bank on it????

Nifty touched the indicated level of 4140 and went below it on close. The next immediate level is 4100 and below that 4070. Consider resistance at 4175 and 4220.

Among the stocks to fall today after a couple of days of stagnation, was SBI.



It is getting strong resistance near Rs 1600 levels and if you notice on the chart, it is a classic case of an earlier support becoming a resistance level.

I expect that a break below 1450 should lead to further fall. Overall trend of the stock can be consider weak unless it crosses Rs 1625 on upside. Even Bank Nifty has a downward bias on the intraday charts as it broke today below 6200.

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala

ZINC ... signs of trend reversal!

The Nifty made a doji (almost) today just near a crucial resistance level.

Consider 4200 as a crucial support level and a break below this should give a down target of 4140 - 4100 levels. Resistance is strong at 4270 on intraday charts.

It would be interesting to track Dow Jones today - if it does not revive after a $700 billion booster ; I wonder what else can save the US economy from further deterioration!

ZINC METAL on the MCX is showing some signs of trend reversal. The metal has good support now near Rs 78.50 levels on the MCX. Expect a target of Rs 88.50 in the short term and Rs 92-93 in the medium term.



The chart above is self explanatory

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala

NIFTY ! some temporary relief?

Nifty moved almost 10% from it'a low of 3800 of thursday. Many traders and investors may have already concluded the end of the bearish phase.

But we technicans are too rigid ! I am still tempted to maintain that a ban or curb on short selling by regulatory bodies the world over cannot be a reason for a long term investor to jump in with his money ( Also, I wonder why they did not have a 'buying long' ban in January ????)

Look at it this way - why should regulatory bodies need to do such a thing as curbing short selling ? simply, because they fear that, if left to itself, the markets may witness further selling pressure, which is the result of an already grown financial crises the world over.

And I have my doubt whether this will settle down soon. Our downtrend is still 'young' - only 9 months old and we may still have another quarter to go before we see light!!

The chart below is more or less self explanatory



Happy trading !!

CA RAjiv D Khatlawala

GOLD - Glittering bright!!

The Nifty movement today was psychological one- it seems. It touched it's recent low of near 3800 levels on opening with a gap down and the most likely scenario was that the bearish sentiment would not continue. The participants of my workshops know why !!

But the next time the Nifty tries to retest those levels, it will most likely break them. Lets keep our fingers crossed. For tomorrow (Friday) 4075-4090 is a resistance area while crucial support is at 4010.

GOLD made a historic run yesterday in the international market when it rallied more than $80 in a single day. In the Indian markets too , after taking crucial support at 11000+ levels, it has rebounded. Fundamental analysis attribute this to a shift of funds in to Gold due to the financial crises faced the world over, after the Lehman bankrupcy.



Consider the bullish trend in Bullion intact till the Rs 11000/- level holds. In the upward momentum, I expect that GOLD on MCX may reach a newer high, much before it does in New York.
Happy Trading!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala

IDFC - - near long term support!

The Nifty has had a roller coaster ride for the past two days - courtesy Lehman Bros. and Merryl lynch

Consider 4035 as a crucial support for intraday and 3980 on daily charts.



IDFC got hammered and quoted near it last years crucial support level of 78. I have given the weekly chart of IDFC and you would observe that there is long term support for the stock between Rs 66 and Rs 78/-.

I presume longer term traders (popularly known as investors)can buy the stock in this range with a 10% stop and hold.

Happy Trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala

Power Grid - powering ahead

One interesting stock in this falling market is POWER GRID.

It has crucial support at Rs 88/- and I expect that a break above Rs 101 will lead to further buying in the stock , irrespective of the market direction.



The target should be at Rs 127-130 levels

Nifty in the meantime has crucial support at 4200 and a break below this should make it test 4000 levels in the near future.

Happy Trading,

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
Head - Training and Research
Jhaveri Securities Ltd.