NIFTY - weekly confusion!!

The Nifty did a roller coaster ride today much to the delight of intraday traders (i am sure my participants would have got both the opening downmove and the intraday upmove)

NIFTY has closed the week as a doji (almost), which was more likely. In fact ahead of the next week's budget, market players would surely become nervous and tend to do more trading than carry over positions.



Asian indices - especially Hangseng and Nikkie have closed lower than 2% and it seems the next week's opening for world markets may be subdued.

Our markets correlation with Hangseng is as high as 97% and that makes a case for worry... (by the way - My monthly newsletter gives details of this- Have you read my monthly newsletter ? you can download it from www.investogyan.com)

The Nifty weekly chart indicates extreme cautionm and one should become extra cautious next week if 4755 get broken.

Happy trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.
www.investogyan.com

RCF.. Budget boost ?

One sector which becomes vibrant and active as the union budget approaches is the Fertilizer sector. For past many years, farmers expect more and more liberal policies from the government and with world wide food problems agriculture not doubt gets importance.

RCF is one of the more active fertilizer counters and has given a positive closing today near to Rs 106



A break and close above Rs 110/- should trigger further buying ahead of the budget and one can expect a jump of about 15-20% in coming days. Keep stops near to Rs 95 levels.

Most other index weighted stock were showing signs of tiredness and one should be very stock spefici in trading for the next couple of weeks.

Happy trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

USD INR .. something's cooking?

The Nifty opened near its daily chart resistance and more or less remained sideways. Be careful with longs at current juncture and book profits. . . (One in hand is better than two in the bush)

Well, long time I have not taken up USDINR on my blog, though I track it almost everyday.

It seems that the USDINR is on the verge of something big. Why ? Well please dont ask fundamental reasons..



Technically, the level of 47/- is now taking up further significance. A break above 47 should be treated as a 'neckline' break out and a sharp upmove towards 49+ levels cannot be ruled out. Currently it seems to be in the formation of the right shoulder.

Whether this really is a neckline break ... we shall know in next few days. But I presume one thing is clear, be careful before the budget... Post budget we will get good directions...

Happy trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

Bharti Airtel - Will the support Hold ?

The Nifty gave a good intraday move and i am sure the intraday trading community had a great time.

Bharti Airtel was one loser stock in today's positive market. It is now just near it's multi month support of Rs near Rs 270/-. The ZAIN take over is not being taken positively by the markets and it seems that Bharti wants to sustain business growth and profits by 'inorganic' growth rather than organic one.



The volumes have been huge at the support level and a break and close below Rs 265 should be viewed negatively.

Keep a close watch on other telecom operators as the sector itself may go in for a downward re-rating.

Happy trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

Reliance Capital- erosion ahead

The Nifty did not go beyond the strong resistance of 4845 and has closed near to 4800. Watch the 4770 level in intraday.

With Inflation in an 'uptrend' at 8.56% in Jan, our fears of higher (or maybe hyper) inflation may come true. Expect some drastic changes in the bank interest rates on upside.

Reliance Capital is a stock which has been in a down move for some time and the current formations on the charts too suggests that the selling pressure is likely to continue further.



The price charts indicate a break below Rs 740 should trigger a sell off which can take it to sub-Rs 700 levels in coming days. Keep a stoploss near Rs 768.

Happy trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

EURO USD - short term rebound likely!

The Nifty gave an upmove backed by the positive world markets especially the emerging markets. A good corrective rise , is the best we can say right now.

Long time I have analysed and written on the foreign currency front. It seems that the EURO-USD is getting oversold and a corrective rebound towards 1.4150 is now due.



A break above 1.3830 should trigger this rebound.

Have my blog readers spotted any specific pattern (hint: Candlestick pattern) on the Euro USD chart attached?

I shall like to have your feedbacks(especially those who have done my workshops)

Happy (currency) trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

IOC...FUELing up!

The Nifty reacted as expected. It tested the range of 4820+ indicated yesterday and has closed weaker.

The news of fuel price rise expectation saw some activity in oil counters. One such stock which is positive in the oil space is IOC.

IOC price chart suggests that a break above Rs 324 should trigger further buying. Traders and investors may keep a stoploss near Rs 300 for the time being and add further on a close above Rs 328/-.



Target expectation is Rs 375-380/-

Happy stock picking in a weak market !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.