Nifty - hesitant move

Nifty , though it moved up today, the upmove was one of caution. There was clear hesitation from market players to go aggresively long.

The Nifty is likely to get resistance at 4820-4845 levels and now after today's close I shall be watching the 4750 level closely.... Break below this may give us (hopefully) the last push towards the important support level of below 4600 in a few days.



At that level (sub 4600) I would cover my medium term short sell positions and wait / go on sidelines.

Now I have to rush for my seminar today . . .

Happy trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

Nifty - divergence ? Well .. not convincing !

The Nifty movement of today again was a great one for intraday traders. But many blog readers / participants are asking me about the RSI divergence that they are seeing on the daily Nifty charts.

Well , I perception is that a divergence should have the characteristic of a panic fall after which things should look up again.



Well, according to my analysis (which is based on certain advanced indictors- not shown here) , the current divergence on RSI on daily price chart of Nifty may be one which may turnout to be a false one.

Corrective upmoves / short covering is being witnessed in intraday, which is not being sustained. However the Nifty being near its 200 EMA is the only 'hope' for bulls!.

Long positions must have stops placed near 4725.

A close below 4700 now should suggest further weakness..

Happy (intraday) trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

NIFTY - Breakout Gap !!!

With today's market fall , I was reminded of the nursery poem "Humpty Dumpty - we all fall down!!"

Well, a bad close to the week with the Nifty closing today at 4718. But for my blog readers - it was nothing new!! ... We were all expecting it since 5100!!!!

But the Nifty chart today, has created what is a rare gap pattern called 'Break Out' Gap. (for definition of this gap please refer to my book )



Now if Nifty does not try to fill this gap and it breaks the low of 4692, the break out gap will get confirmed and a further sell off cannot be ruled out.

Incidentally you may have observed the movement of HangSeng ... The rounding pattern analysed a few days back is nearing its target of 18500 nearabouts.!

The world markets are nervous and big players are using every opportunity to exit. Be careful before buying aggresively.

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

Yes Bank - NO PLEASE....

The Nifty and it's 'movers and shakers' are surely playing 'roller coater'! Once again a good day for intraday traders (especially those who have attended my workshops on intraday trading)

Well, watch the 4800-4785 level.... break below these should suggest ending of the current 'sideway' move and resumption of the down move....

Banking stocks have been recently good short sell candidates. One stock which seems to be making 'topping' formations is YES BANK. After making multiple tops at Rs 280/- levels, it has started weakening .



It has closed at Rs 242 and now a break below Rs 237 should trigger a sell off further down. I will not be surprised if it tests Rs 200-205 levels in the short to medium term. Upmoves will face strong resistance near Rs 256-260/-.

Investors holding the stock may say 'NO' to YesBank for the time being!.

Happy (day) trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

FAME - A Blockbuster!

The Nifty gave a rally backed by world markets and in the process recovering what it lost yesterday.. As I commented yesterday - a great market for intraday traders!

One of the early morning news today was the Inox take over of Fame Multiplex. The 'consolidation' in the Media industry seems to have begun - and yes it remains one of my favorite sectors!.

Many people asked me whether they should buy INOX... Answer : for long term yes, but for shorter term better to concentrate on Fame. ...

The Fame price chart is surely interesting and also revealing. In fact the price chart reveals that the take over announced today was already known to 'some' players much earlier. But alas , our regulators don't know how to 'read' price charts!



The Fame price chart indicates buying on a break above Rs 48 with a risk of Rs 10/-. The target based on technical computations should be 65 initially and then near to Rs 80+ levels.

Not a bad trade .

Happy trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

Ranbaxy - A bearish candlestick pattern!

The Nifty tested the indicated resistance of 4940+ levels and retraced heavily from that level to close weak. The mood of the market is clearly negative. This is a great market for Intraday traders !

RANBAXY which was in limelight some time back, has been in a dwon move for some time. And after stagnating near recent lows, the scrip has formed a pattern called 'three falling method' in candlestick terminology. This is a bearish 'continuation' pattern.



This would suggest further weakness in the scrip especially on break below Rs 430/- - in which case it should restart the falling momentum speedily.

I would not be surprised if the stock tests Rs 380 near about levels in the coming few days. !

Happy profit booking !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

New currencies for trading!!

The NIFTY moved as expected - just short of my corrective rise target of 4940. May be that will come tomorrow - if President Obama does not spring surprises in today's US Budget speech!! Short term traders should book profit at higher levels.

Friends, I am sure you all will be delighted that you can now trade in three more currencies - EURO, YEN and GBP!! Now therefore you can become an international trader!

I took this chance to check the Euro-INR Chart. Well I only wished that the Exchanges would have introduced Euro Futures a couple of months back - in the month of Dec 09.

That was a great opportunity for us to sell Euro at near Rs 69/- levels with targets of Rs 64 - 62... But the Excanges have introduced them today (1-2-10) when the Euro is already trading near 64.50...



Well, I presume we may now get an opportunity to buy it near to 62 levels for a corrective bounce back... (Incidentally , the Euro weakening against major currencies , especially USD, is because of a fear of default by Greece.)

Now we have more securities to track and trade and as technical traders we are only happier.

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.