HDFC Bank .. Caution ! Reversal ahead !

The NIFTY index moved rangebound to negative despite opening strong on positive Asian markets. Keep an eye on 5215!!

One of my blog reader and friend drew my attention to HDFC Bank... It seems we may see some profit booking in this (and other ) banking counter.



After testing the previous high near Rs 1840 the scrip seems to be in the process of making a H&S with the neckline very much near to the current price.

Investors in this stock may become alert and may want to book profit on break below Rs 1660/- (curr price Rs 1710). A minimum down target of Rs 1450/- is likely.

And yes - banking stocks are witnessing selling pressure in upmoves ... Beware ...

Happy trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

CNXIT - 3 Black Crows !!

It seems the number 3 is not moving out of my head !! After 3 Idiots ... Its 3 black crows !... Yes, the CNX IT index charts depicts exactly that - 3 black crows - as the Japanese would like to call them...

IT stocks have been in a selling pressure especially since the Dollar broke its important Rs 46 level. A further down move is not ruled out. We shall evaluate USDINR in a later blogpost...

The IT index seems to be 'peaking out' and this was mentioned some time back on my blog (See my blogpost of Dec 21, 2009).



It has reacted from near the indicated resistance level of 5800+... (actual high 5932).

On Candlestick charting, the last three days of fall would be termed as the 'three black crows' - which is essentially a reversal pattern. Upmoves near to 5750 may be treated corrective and traders may lighten their position in IT stocks.. And a break below 5500 should give you the final confirmation of 'reversal'..

Caveat Emptor (Buyers beware)

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

INOX - can become a Superhit!

The huge success of "3 idiots" is interesting from the financial angle. The box-office collections are supposed to be in excess of Rs 250 cr... Wow - many companies don't even have this much of a turnover!! let alone profits ! This made me glance at the beneficiary of this boom - the multiplexes.

MEDIA is one sector which I have always thought of as one of the most undervalued sectors in recent times... Especially when we talk about multiplexes like INOX Leisure... With 'Bollywood' movies putting one after the other hits, fundamentally things should be quite good...



Well but as good analysts let us track what the price says ... There is a clear break out from a 'triangular' formation and I expect that the current upmove should continue - even if markets consolidate.

Buying near to Rs 67/- with a Rs 10 stoploss whould give us an upward potential price of Rs 90 and Rs 110/-..

The next time you watch a blockbuster - think of your Inox stock !!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

NAT Gas - ready to 'FLAG off'

The stock markets are nervously moving upwards with more activity in mid-cap and small-caps (Ummm!!).

The commodities and metals on the commodities exchanges are in fact witnessing activity. Aluminium touched a yearly high while copper and zinc are nearing theirs. But one 'commodity' which seems to be 'fascinating' me is NAT GAS. Even the international price charts as also the price movements on MCX seems to be interesting.

Currently it seems that the prices are 'taking rest' in the form of a 'FLAG' and a break out above the flag pattern should provide the next push upward to prices...



It is also changing the overall trend (which was analysed a few days back on this blog).

Buying above Rs 280 should give a targets near to Rs 310 and Rs 330+ .. Keep a stoploss near Rs 262 initially...

Happy trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

Tata Comm - worst seems over. . .

Yesterday's stock - Essar Oil - saw a good momenutum today and was up by more than 5%. Presume my blog readers have benefitted from this.

Another stock which seems to be 'bottoming out' in a bullish market is Tata Comm. The scrip tested its long term support area of Rs 335/- recently and has rebounded with good volumes in last couple of days.



Expect a further upmove towards Rs 410 and then Rs 440 in coming days. Keep stoploss at the crucial support of Rs 335/- in any case.

Advanced indicators too are showing signals of revival.

Happy Trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

Essar Oil ... ready to boil ?

Here' wishing all my blog readers a great 2010!! ... (like the FIIs I was out of office in the last week of Dec, having returned in the new year!)

Midcap stocks are finding favour and are witnessing good operator activity. One of the few scrips which becomes erratic (and hence operator favorite) at times is Essar Oil.



The stock is currently consolidating near its long term moving average and one should expect a sudden 'burst' in the price and volumes in the near future.

Consider a close above Rs 149 as the initial entry point and add on break beyond Rs 162/-. Target should be at least 25% above initial entry. Major support exists at 130/- which may be used as stop. ...

As for NIFTY , the break out of 5200 has still not created fireworks (which it should have done). We still keep our fingers crossed!

Happy trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

Nifty - 'Iss paar ya uss paar !!! '

Intraday traders in Nifty seem to be enjoying their time ... But, it seems the positional traders are stressing out... 5200 is surely the psychological level for the 'elusive' break out!

If that comes, you are again on a bull rise and if not .. well we remain in 'No man's land' . What seems to be difficult for traders is the ability to change the view , but I think - like always - let prices decide . "Price is King" !! We are but humble followers of the King!



The Nifty level of 5115 is crucial for intraday while 5200 should be treated as break out level on upper side.... The FII theory, indicated yesterday, still remains and we must be ready for 'false breakouts' especially since US markets and players will be in holiday mood from tomorrow (Dec 25)...

In coming days , be ready to change your view fast and frequently .... if you are not able to do that - well, you too can take a 'Christmas holiday'!

I see a lot of action and trends in commodities markets - especially the metals. a second phase of upmove seems to be starting . . .

And yes - Do enjoy your 'Christmas holidays' - 'Market mein movement to chalta rahegaa"

Happy trading
CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.