NIFTY - a good rally ? ?

The stock markets moved beyond what any one (almost) could have thought of yesterday. A 3% jump!!

The discussed and cited reasons was the 'optimism' of the market over the FM's statement (again!) of a 10% GDP growth . . . That's called - keeping the hope alive!

Well but can it not be one more instance of the 'age-old' reason of improved FII NAVs before they pack their bags for Christmas? Today's rally surely would help them a lot. . . (I wonder why we never have such rallies on Diwali day - when WE close our books)

Also one more thing which actually 'surprised' me today was the fact that while the stock markets rallied 3%, the USDINR was actually up 3p!!!!! This fact actually triggered in my mind, the theory of a FII engineered rally .



What we need to see is that whether this rise will be avble to break beyond 5200. The indicators are still negative and hence I shall not take an anticipatory opinion. Let prices ,as always, tell us what to do...

For tomorrow Nifty 5165-5175 range becomes crucial for intraday . Watch out

Happy trading!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

GOLD - time again to glitter ?

Yesterday I saw one of the TV Channels giving out trophies for "Indian of the Year' !! While watching it, what went through my mind was that , if at all, the trophy of the "Indian of the Year' must have gone to "The Indian Investor" !! who came out of the roller coaster ride of the past few months and more importantly - this achieved, inspite of the economy!

Time to watch where Gold is moving. After testing the magical figure of $1225 , it has since retraced back towards $ 1100 and below. This was bound to happen as the race towards $1225 was 'parabolic' and steep.



The GOLD Chart (in $ terms - not MCX) suggests that a further fall towards $1075 and below should actually provide short term traders an opportunity to buy it for a quick rebound. I presume this should correspond to about Rs 16300 price range on MCX.

Though the indicators have started to weaken, there is a high possibility of a rebound from the oversold level - below $1075. . .

Watch out !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

CNX IT - may reverse any time ....

The Nifty continued its weakness as expected... Frontline stocks took to profit booking and the recent movements of the IT sector stocks too are not encouraging.

The CNXIT index seems to be nearing a reversal point and one can expect it to 'help' in the downward journey of the Nifty.



The CNX IT index has crucial support at 5645 - based on intraday charts. A break below this should start the down move. the daily charts should later suggest weakness on the breaking of the crucial 5600 level.

Investors who are still holding their IT winners, may consider profit booking...

Happy Trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

Natural Gas - Tomorrow's CrudeOil ??

The Nifty broke the crucial 4990 ... And that too on a weekend... At least the suspense is diluted! I presume now most of the traders and investors are 'deciding' their next moves....

Recently I read an altericle on 'alternative fuel for the future' and one of the conclusions was that since Crude Oil is relatively costly, Natural Gas has the potential for eating away Crudeoil's market share in the energy space...

Well, earlier there was a high positive correlation between Crude and NatGas which was recently (past 2 years) violated. Even when Crude rose, Nat Gas had been falling... So now if Crude is 'not rising' will NatGas rise ? ?

That promtped me to check the price behaviour of NatGas. It seems NatGas prices are changing their trend.



From the recent downward trend of the past one-and-half year, the trend is clearly changing on upside. The long term MAs too are suggesting trend change. While my long term RSI (not shown here) is already in buying mode...

I shall not be surprised if NatGas price shoots up towards Rs 310 initially and then to Rs 360/- on the MCX !!

Happy trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

USD INR ... trend changing ?

The Nifty again 'bored' the players today. But since technical signals are weakening, it may be a question of time before it breaks the crucial 4990

As for the USDINR, which has a inverse correlation with the markets, it is showing signs of strenghtening. It touched a high of 47/- today and close at 46.90.



Some technical indicators are suggesting a change in trend while a couple of advanced indicators suggest that it would gain momentum in the coming days ...
And if that happens, the Nifty down break of 4990 may be imminent.

Incidentally, I presume the CNXIT index too which was strong , is showing some 'initial' signs of exhaution.... Next couple of days working should be able to throw more light. . .

Happy trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

BankNifty - May lead the market down!!

The NIFTY today touched a low of 5004 and recovered to test the resistance of 5070-80 range. This may be treated as corrective rise as suggested yesterday.

Sector wise, the 'old economy' and the banking stocks are down while the 'Techies' are quite strong. The CNXIT index is getting stronger but at the same time Bank Nifty is weakening.

The Price chart of BankNifty suggests that it is very near to changing its trend on downside and the Price charts are also showing some 'interesting' price patterns ( Yes I think I will discuss this further today in my Technical Analysis batch).


Well , those of you who hold banking stocks in your trading or investment portfolio, be careful... a 10% fall from current levels is highly likely and this may well be the reason for the Nifty to break the crucial 4990 level....

Happy 'profit booking'

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

Nifty - Momentum Lost !!

The Nifty held on to the crucial intraday support of 5080 for long before giving in... The break of this intraday support saw it lose another 60 points and giving a bearish candle.

The indicators are suggesting falling momentum and hence upmoves should be treated as corrective annd should be used to exit long positions... In fact I have been writing often, that as a trader I would be more comfortable only beyond 5200 !!



Weakness seems to be setting in and a close below 4990 should speed up the fall towards 4800 ... And yes pray that the markets hold 4800 levels ... if that breaks.... well..... (don't worry - we shall analyse when it happens)

Many frontline stocks are giving sell signals and I presume those of you who are active stock traders can surely find something juicy to short sell!!

Happy Trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.
www.investogyan.com