CRUDE OIL ... Not boiling !!

The Nifty again played spoil sport ! .. In the morning even though Asian markets were down, the Indian markets opened positive and again attempted to go near to 5182, failed and then closed near 5100. Keep an aye on 5065!

One of the recent 'hot' news is that CRUDEOIL fell below $70 (currently at $68). While I expected that in the recently concluded rally, Crude oil would go near Rs 4000/- on MCX, it essentially fell short of it due to the exchange rate.



It has broken an important support of Rs 3450/- (on MCX). This suggests further weakness and down target could be at Rs 3150 initially.

What is more worrying is that the recent rise during the last few months was not strong enough to take it to the 50% retracement.

Would this fall in Crude oil bring the stock markets down? When Crude oil was rising, the fundamental analysts, were screaming that it is a sign of 'economic recovery' as demand for crude seem to have risen and hence stock markets were gaining. Now that Crude oil is falling will they talk of reverse logic ? Or will they find some other (convenient)reason for the rising US stock market????

Happy trading
CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.
www.investogyan.com

Nifty - an DOJI week!!

The Nifty gets surely nervous as it approaches 5200 ... Market psychology and Market comfort zones in action!! ... (my particpants would know what these are )

Well, It seems we have another week with a DOJI candle on the Nifty. The daily charts are going sideway suggesting the inherent confusion.



Scrip specific moves are rampant. And I am sure those who traded Bharti Airtel (analysed on this blog on 4th Dec when price was Rs 315/-. The target indicated of Rs 345 is achieved...

I presume sector wise telecom remains good in a down move but we shall analyse the stocks at appropriate time..

I expect that the Nifty support now of 5065 is important and below this, slide of another 100+ points not ruled out ... Keep a watch on Reliance !

Happy trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

USD INR turning +ve !!

The Nifty did give a good rise yesterday but the Dow Jones and Asian markets showed weakness.... This is 'normal'...

The saying goes 'The only thing that is constant is Change' ... We 'marketmen' can redraft this as 'Only thing that will be constant is confusion (read volatility)'...

The Dollar index rise gave jitters to Gold , Crude, Silver and other metals ... I expect that the rise in dollar against the rupee too is likely.

USDINR charts suggest a good support near Rs 46/- which is the 50% retracement level of the entire rise from Rs 39/- to Rs 53/-. And now a break out above Rs 47.20 should be able to generate more steam and hence put huge pressure on the rupee...



Overall the USDINR has good support at Rs 46 levels and unless this is broken downward, expect the rupee to depreciate further !!

Happy tracking!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

Dollar rises - Will stocks and Commodities fall?

One of my regular readers of this blog seem to have read my mind too!

Well I have been closely tracking the Dollar (Dollar index) for the past few days to get some better idea of how stocks and commodities should behave in coming days.

Gold and Silver went in to correction and lost their technical momentum. Stock indices worldwide too seem to be losing their recent momentum...

Dollar Index is surely on a rebound path with technical parameters favoring a further rise.



Well , that should surely mean that stocks , metal and bullion may go in correction or sideway mode (depending on their individual strength)

As of Nifty - Watch out for the 5030 level !!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

Bharti Airtel - Line clear ?

The Nifty seems to be 'fighting' with the 5100+ levels and upmoves are getting resistances. A fall from these levels below 5030 in next few days, could be negative for the markets in the medium term (Why? ... in next blog post)

Bharti Airtel has the tendency to be the contrarian index stock. Currently it is showing signs of 'bottoming' out and I expect that a break above Rs 315/- should trigger buying interest which can take to Rs 345 initially and then to Rs 370 levels.



The Rs 375 levels should give a strong resistance to prices.

Happy trading - but be careful with other stocks / nifty!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

Tata Motors - Reverse gear ?

The Nifty has been making a 'doji' pattern for two days - suggesting high confusion among market players. 5100 Nifty is the area beyond which market players are not comfortable.

As for individual stocks which gave initial signals of fatigue is TATA MOTORS.



Today the stock has formed what we call a 'Bearish engulfing' candle stick pattern. The pattern suggests a break to the ongoing uptrend and signals of fatigue.

Investors who hold this stock may want to book profits and keep some money in the bank !

A break below 700/- will be treated further negative.

(Incidentally - My Basic Fundamental Analysis (yes you read it right) course is scheduled on Sat 5th Dec. More information - www.investogyan.com)

Happy profit booking !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

Suzlon . . Positive winds ..

The Nifty touched the overhead resistance near to 5130 and has closed above this level. A good and strong rebound from the 'Dubai' panic. Intraday traders watch the 5085 levels for tomorrow ... !

Well stock specific - Suzlon seems to be generating buying interest yet again.



The technical indicators - especially the RSI - suggests that the buying momentum is building up and that investors who can take a risk of Rs 15/- in this stock can targets the Rs 110 - 115 levels in days to come. ..

Woops - mid caps are turning up again .. More than meets the eye ???

And yes, all bullion traders out there - watch Silver - a break beyond $19 should see lot of action ....

Happy trading !!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.