RCom - Time for bottom Fishing!!

Nifty movement towards 5050 would have been expected by my participants .. The Nifty shot beyond that level. I expect some resistance near these levels.

(Incidentally the move in Sun Pharma was quite good... given in blogpost dt 5th May)

RCom , like IDEA, seems to be finding buying interest near the previous low of Rs 131/-. a few days back when it hit Rs 131 there was huge buying...



A break above Rs 150 should be considered further positive and target should be near to Rs 168 - 172/- Keep a Rs 10 stoploss from your buying price. . .

As for other sectors, I presume the SUGAR stocks are recovering as expected. But be careful in index heavyweights!

Happy Trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

IDEA - Someone is having an IDEA!!

The Nifty rallied today beyond 5000! and yes , once again participants of my intraday workshops seem to have profited nicely on their trades on upside today too! Watch 5050 for resistance in Nifty . . .

IDEA Cellular caught my attention as there was a huge volume spike yesterday - both in cash market as well as in futures ...

The volume spike has occured near the previous low and hence could be significant technically. ..



Wait for a break above Rs 52.50 for entry in the stock keeping a stop near to Rs 47/- for a corrective rise near to Rs 61- 63...

On other scrips , it seems that today's ,major movement were 'derivative expiry' influenced and hence better to evaluate them tomorrow.

(I am sure you have gone through the 'SUPERTRADER' writeup... Do let me know how you find the concept)

Happy Trading!!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

The SUPERTRADER Workshop !

Hello Friends,

Investogyan is launching its much-awaited "SuperTrader Workshop Series"

The Workshop will prepare today's trader to analyse markets with a unique 'techno-fundamental' approach and also help him earn 'stress-free' profits.

Do you want to know more about this unique workshop ?
Get details as www.investogyan.com . You may also send details to friends who may be interested.

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

NIFTY - taking direction from HangSeng!

The Nifty opened in down Gap and fell further losing more than 140 points on close to close basis. Again, I am sure my earlier participants have had a busy day earning profits! .

Well, incidentally you may have noticed that HangSeng has broken the crucial 19500 level (This is what we discussed in one of my recent sessions. I had indicated why the 19500 level was more likely to be broken and what impact it will have on Nifty). The Nifty too is following suit and has broken its crucial 4900 support level.



I presume more bloodshed is likely in coming days. Better concentrate on the intraday trades ... (up and down)

Advanced indicators (not shown here) are suggesting that the downward move is gaining momentum and hence investment buying is not advisable. Moreover, there is also a 'dangerous' pattern on the Nifty charts which I have been suggesting for past two months or more.... Lets keep our fingers crossed and earn money in down moves!

Happy intraday trading !
CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

BANK NIFTY . . still unsafe !

The Nifty opened in up gap rallied to a resistance and then sold-off... I received many calls from my participants saying they could make more than 75 Nifty points in intraday trading . . . Well, it satisfies me greatly, when my participants trade profitably both - up and down in intraday !.....

In my earlier blog post (dated 28-Apr) I had indicated exiting banking stocks especially if Bank Nifty breaks below 9500...Well it did break and is currently at 9050 levels.



But it seems there will be further profit booking in the banking stocks in days ahead as the target for the Bank Nifty is now near to 8600 points.

I expect that a break below 9000 may trigger further sell off in baning counters.

Happy (intraday) trading !
CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

GOLD - Time to Dis-Invest !

Dear Friends,

You may download the article (pdf file) titled
"Gold - Time to Disinvest" from my website www.investogyan.com
Thanks

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Reliance Cap - Rebound due. . .

The Nifty more or less behaved as anticipated. My intraday participants would have been 'bullish' for the entire day today. . .

One stock which seems to be forming a base for rebound is Rel Capital.

The stock has good support at Rs 625 levels and this is also a support on daily charts. Indicators are oversold and many are suggesting a bounce from current levels.



One may buy on break above Rs 655 with a stoploss kept at Rs 625 for a target of Rs 705 / 710 in coming days. There may be slight resistance at Rs 675 to the stock in intraday.

Incidentally the EuroUSD has risen well and I presume therre is some more steam left in the current rebounce.

(Do check the latest article on www.investogyan.com)

Happy trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

USDINR - Trend Reversal ?

After a big fall yesterday, the Nifty took some rest, so it seems. Technically it was almost a 'doji' . It seems now North Korea is on a 'war' path over sanctions imposed on it by the West. One reason for the USDINR to rise (rupee to depreciate) was attributed to this fact.

In Investogyan's newsletter as well in earlier blogposts, I have already indicated a target of Rs 46.50 which was achieved today.

And now it seems, we may be having a reversal of the downtrend in USDINR. The break above Rs 46.50 is suggestive of this. Moreover Rs 44/- has become a strong base for the currency pair which is also a technical retracement level.



We know that therre is an inverse correlation with the NIFTY and if USDINR changes its 'trend' then it may suggest that sooner or later Nifty too may change its current uptrend.

I would therefore watch USDINR more closely in the next few days. Those who trade the USDINR may book some profit (at least partially) at Rs 46.75+ levels and re-enter in corrections.

Happy trading!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Humpty Dumpty we all fall .....down!

The Nifty acheived the down target of 4950 indicated in my newsletter. Well i am quite sure my participants have made good money - especially those who attended my practical derivatives course...

Well, it seems that investors across the world now have more things to worry than just EuroZone. And in fact major markets across the world are breaking their 'intermediate' supports (many have broken long term supports).

The Nifty too is at a long term support level at 4900-4950. While long term investors can do some small buying in select (frontline) stocks, short term / positional traders may still refrain from buying just because it has fallen much'!



Metals Auto, IT and banks other sectors have been discussed in this blog and I have indicated the 'weakness'. While we may have some corrective bounce, I expect the overall trend to be weak.

While the Nifty is at a long term support, it is the advanced indicators (not shown here) which are suggesting further weakness. Unless these turn back , my view should remain in favour of down side.

( Blog readers who have attended my workshop(s) may continue to trade more in intraday for a few days more )

Happy profit booking !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Euro problems- early easing signals!

The Nifty remained volatile in intraday but closed near the close of yesterday indicating indecision among players. However intraday traders would have earned good today too.

the Euro zone's problems may be easing , at least on the currency front. Euro USD prices are suggesting that after the 'panic' there seems to be some stability.

The emergence of a hammer after a continous downmove is indicating a halt to the current fall in prices.



I would wait for a break and close above 1.2525 to suggest further bullishness and if that occurs, my target should be near 1.29 - 1.30.

One needs to keep stoploss near to recent low to trade.

A rise in Euro may lead to a fall in Gold which has seen a runup backed by the Euro problems.

Happy trading!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

SBI.... cannot bank on it !

(You can download interesting market related articles from our website now www.investogyan.com)

The Nifty had a nice intraday move.... It gave almost more than a 100 point+ move to traders who attended my intraday workshop! Again one of those few days which an intraday trader waits for.....

One stock which we had discussed in the ITG meet on Tuesday was SBI. I had indicated that a break below 2275 should give a sell signal. Well the price broke down today and closed near to Rs 2210..... (in fact an intraday trader would have been short at 2310 in the morning as per our technique)



Use any corrective upmove to sell at Rs 2250-2260 with a stoploss placed at 2325 for a down target at 2100 nearabout levels.

Various indicators (all not shown in chart) have given a sell signal - this is what was discussed in ITG.

Happy trading !
CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Chinese bear market !- did I hear right ?

The Nifty remained fairly volatile enough for intraday traders to earn money (obviously those who trade scientifically, like our participants). Keep an eye on 5145 Nifty in intraday tomorrow!

TODAY, instead of the levels and targets and stops, lets talk about the Financial Markets from a different perspective.

Bloomberg is 'shouting' of the onset of the Chinese Bear Market. In fact from the time I read it I was both amused and confused !

Think of it. The world's fastest growing economy , on which depends the world's growth rate, the world's metals market and the world's hope - is in a bear market. And the WEST (US and Europe) - which actually took / pushed everyone into a recession, are seeing unprecedented rallies and 52 week highs !!!!!

Can any fundamental analyst please stand up and explain this ?



It seems everything is 'relative' and Einstein's theory seems to be working better in the financial markets. Whether we can say this is 'Market Behaviour' or a WEST-led scandal, is still not clear.

But the next thought that appeared on my mind was - what will happen to the world's second fastest growing economy ? Will it have the same fate as the fastest one or is it destined to something else?

Inflation and high property prices are China's concern. Oh, but then, aren't these also India's concern?

Its surely a strange world we live in.... and as I indicated in Investogyan's current month newsletter- "Warren Buffet and Peter Lynch may thank their stars that they were not born in the last 20 years"!!

Happy observing !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

BajajHind - Selling Climax !!

The Nifty remained in confusion state during the day and I presume intraday traders had to 'workout' a lot. Keep an eye on Nifty closing at 5120 or below!

BajajHind is one of the stocks which has been hammered along with its other peers in the Sugar space.

However the last few days working suggests that there may be what is called a 'selling climax' which usually happens when there is 'unusually' high volume buildup at a low level. This may actually suggest potential bullishness.



Today's candle was a hammer and one can expect that a break above Rs 112 should lead to a corrective rebound. On break out keep a stoploss near to today's low and wait for a target of 130 in short - medium term.

Happy trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

HANGSENG - 19500 CRUCIAL for ASIA !!!!!

Nifty movement was as indicated yesterday on this blog. I had indicated intraday support of 5170 below which selling was likely. The Nifty fell to close lower at 5130.

The Chinese are getting increasingly worried about inflation and property prices. Well, just look around you - and you will realise that that is also the situation for INDIA! I am sure it is time our Politicians do not behave like the 'Ostrich which put its head in the ground' in the story. . . Wake up ! Mes amies!!

HangSeng Index has a high correlation with Indian Markets and hence I was searching for direction there. Nowadays if you want to track Indian markets, it is better to analyse Hangseng(!!).



Hangseng's Index shows a crucial support at 19500 - today's closing (11-May) is 20089. A Break below 19500 should surely lead to further selling in Asian markets ; where China is now a 'regular' in feeding negative news.

A break of 19500 on Hangseng should roughly correspond to Nifty breaking 5000. The overall structure is still on down side and hence better to play safe .

Happy Trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Nifty - a Dead Cat Bounce !!!

A great day for all my 'Intraday Trading' Participants! I am sure they and their clients would have got at least a 100 Nifty points today !

Well the rally was quite nice. The Asian markets opened strong as the Euro Zone announced a near $1 trillion package for its Debt ridden member countries. This also saw the Euro make the speediest recovery in recent times : from 1.27 to 1.31 (almost).

But yet it would not be wrong to say that today's rise was a mere bounce back or corrective rise, led mainly through short covering.



Investors and those who have / had long positions may take this opportunity to exit.
The Nifty has strong resistance near to 5230 levels and an intraday support at 5170 for tomorrow.

Realty sector got a good boost today and may continue to outperform the indices in this week.

Happy trading...

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Investogyan Newsletter!

As you are aware we send a monthly newsletter to our participants and others. In case you are interested in downloading and reading it, the latest issue has been uploaded on the website www.investogyan.com
Regards
CA Rajiv D Khatlawala

Renuka Sugar - should get Sweet !!!!

The Nifty retested the 5038 level which , if you have noted, was the 50% retracement level. Overall structure still remains clouded but expect more intraday moves.

In fact , those of you who have attended my 'Intraday workshops' would have got both - the initial down move AND the subsequent upmove!. . . .

One sector which has been in news is the Sugar sector. With decontrol of sugar prices round the corner, one should expect stock prices of the sugar counters to rebound.

Though fundamanetally there is expectation of a larger Sugar crop in coming year, the stock prices are ready for a rebound. Even international Sugar prices are set to rebound after a relentless fall.



Renuka Sugars' price structure suggests buying at Rs 61/- with a stoploss placed at Rs 57 for a positional target at Rs 68 and then Rs 75/-.

The overall markets are still fragile and hence keep frequent profit booking and tight stoploss in long positions for at least the index stocks.

Happy Trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

SUN PHARMA- correction due !!

The Nifty opened in huge gap but it did recover some lost ground in the last half hour. Incidentally, my target given in ITG group of 5050 was touched today.

One stock which has been recently hammered due to litigation against it by other pharma companies , is SUN PHARMA.



After falling from a level of 1850/- to near Rs 1500, we may presume that it is now over sold and is very near to a support level of Rs 1500. A corrective bounce back is likely towards Rs 1650/1700 levels.

One may consider buying it above Rs 1555 with stop placed at Rs 1500 for a target at Rs 1650 - 1700

As for other frontline stocks, the overall trend is down, hence use upmoves to exit longs if still holding.

Happy trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

BSE METAL INDEX - at melting point!

The Nifty gave the desired move. In fact those of you who attended the ITG meet last week would not be surprised !. One of the key stocks discussed for short selling last week was Grasim (at 2800, for tgt 2550). It gave a great downmove in the week. More stocks for discussion this week !

Well, one sector which has been under my radar is Metals. The news of Chinese slowing down is not good news for metals. One can expect more selling pressure in this sector.

The BSE MEtal Index currently has today broken the crucial 17000 level - it was the biggest loser in sector indices.



Expect a medium to long term down target 13500 - 14000. Upmoves in stocks in this sector may be used to exit longs by investors / create short sell by traders.

Some stocks like Tisco/ SESA Goa were already discussed for short sell in ITG meeting of last couple of weeks. I presume traders may now look for the midcap metal stocks which are still at higher levels !

Happy trading!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd .
www.investogyan.com

Practical Derivative Strategies

Dear All,
Investogyan will be having a FULL DAY Workshop on Practical Derivatives Strategies on 8th May 2010 - Saturday. Fees Rs 3500/-. If interested , call or email!!
RDK

GOLD . . . safe haven ?

The Nifty fell today on back of weak US and european markets on last friday.. Well it seems corrections would continue across financial markets.

Among the markets which are witnessing buying pressure, is GOLD. It touched a recent high of $1180 and it is showing indications of re-testing (or at least going near to ) $1225 in coming days.



The price charts indicate positiveness till the time $1150 is intact. Problems across Europe , if they worsen, would only add to the demand for this yellow metal.

In fact along with Gold, it seems even Silver is witnessing some good moves and is all set to test higher levels.

Happy Trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com