Hind Unilever - defensive buy !

The Nifty again almost made a 'Doji' formation on the charts and is clearly suggesting the indecision in the mind of the market. Watch the 5240 -5225 level for intraday tomorrow.

One stock which has recently been hammered is HUL (Hind Unilever) the 'long term investors' stock'. Well it seems that it is taking support near a multi month low of Rs 220 and rebounding from there.



Traders may want to buy the stock at Rs 245 with a stoploss being placed at 232 for a upward move near to 265- 270. In fact a break above Rs 245 will also give a nice derivative trade !

Being a defensive stock , it can have a tendency to go againt the market direction.

Happy trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

NATGAS . . should flare up soon

The NIFTY closed the settlement today near to 5250 expected level. Most of the movement today was 'based' on derivatives expiry settlement / carry over.

But some commodities saw action in last few days. GOLD was on a roll yesterday as the world financial markets went on a selling spree. Safe Haven eh?

Well but one commodity which should be a low risk trade is NATGAS.



After a spell of falling prices there has been a good consolidation near to Rs.170 levels (on MCX) and we should expect that a break above Rs 194 should open up targets of 209 - 215 in coming days.

Long positions above Rs 194 should have stoploss near to Rs 185. For the time being consider this upmove as a 'corrective' bounce!

Happy trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

BankNifty . . time to 'bank' profits!!

The Nifty had a free fall. While we did not expect this in a down gap, nonetheless we were expecting it. In yesterday's ITG meeting itself we discussed it. So the members were ready for the fall!

Banking stocks are showing mixed signals. While ICICI Bank and the likes are falling, SBI and the likes are rising... But a look at the BankNifty indicates that a reversal is now due (or overdue).



Consider 9500 as a crucial support area and a break below this level should give the necessary trigger. Even advanced indicators (not shown here) are suggesting the possibility of trend reversal.

Keep a down target at 8800 (on break below 9500). Investors who are invested in banking stock may want to take profits - to their own banks!

It is also interesting to note that many of today's gainers are defensive stocks / stocks from defensive sectors!!

Happy market watching !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

YES BANK - - OH NO !!!!

The Nifty remained more or less subdued while the overall market breadth was negative. Most of the market breadth indicators were weak.

Among the sectors which are likely to see profit booking is Banking - which has risen in recent weeks. And one stock which seems to be nearing the peak is YES BANK.



The price charts suggest that the positive results seem to have been factored in to the price and a medium term correction is due. I would not be surprised if a double top formation is formed on daily charts.

Keep an eye on 267 and a break below this level should trigger a selling / profit booking mode for a down target near to Rs 230/- levels. Keep a stoploss at 280.

As for other stocks, lot of sell signals being generated in my watch list . They will be discussed today at the ITG meeting.

Happy Trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy
www.investogyan.com

Crude OIL - $100 again ?????

The Nifty remained sideways for most of today even as the Asian markets rallied. It seems the results season is having its effect. One thing keeps coming to my mind often - will the Sensex / Nifty peak out before Asia does ???

Well as for happenings in the other markets - Crude Oil is remaining above the $82 mark and has regained $85. The price chart structure is indicating that it is getting ready for the next lap towards $100. How soon , that we cannot say.



I expect that on the MCX , a break above Rs 3845 should give the necessary trigger for the move to 4000/- and then beyond it. There is strong base currently near to 3600/- However on break out, one can use a stoploss just near 3720/-

And yes, somethings cooking in NATGAS too.... we shall that in subsequent blogposts...

Happy trading!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.
www.investogyan.com

NIFTY - the contrarian ? ?

The Euro zone is again at logger heads. Greece's problems have resurfaced and it is worried on how to the $11 billion needed for repayment. Euro crashed against the dollar to its yearly low , whiel other asian markets too followed suit.

But the Indian markets are still positive and that is despite high inflation and reports of a higher budget deficit due to oil marketing companies' increasing losses. Are we 'hoping' our way out of our problems ?



Time will tell. Nifty at present is still in 'no man's land' A road range for reference is 5250 and 5340. I will be surprised if it gives upward break - but then we are mere followers of the market and we shal do so!

A close below 5240 now can give the needed warning to all of us.

Happy trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

USDJPY . readying for upmove?

The Nifty gave an intraday rally which later proved to fizzle out. But those of you who have attended my intraday trading workshop, surely would have gained hugely. This is the kind of day we wait for !

Well, many blog readers have requested me to cover world currencies in my blogposts and so I thought of evaluating something which i personally trade.

USDJPY seems to be readying for a upmove. Currently it is inside of a bullish 'Flag' formation and i expect that a break out above 93.80 (safely 94) should trigger a fresh round of buying in the pair.



The target could be near to 99-100 in near medium term. ( a big move in currency markets). Keep your stoploss near to 91.50.

Well those of you who are aware, we can now trade this pair in Indian markets (NSE / MCX-SX) too... (Incidentally that is where I too trade).

Surely you are all becoming 'Global Traders'

Happy 'currency' trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd .
www.investogyan.com

CNX IT .. U turn ahead

The Nifty held on today though it seemed market was nervous in upmoves. As for individual stocks, heavyweights were under pressure and more activity was seen in midcaps / small caps.



CNX IT index is just near to its support level of 5950. With IT stocks like Infy and TCS and Wipro under some selling pressure / profit booking, it is likely that this support level of 5950 for the CNX IT will break in coming days.

Expect a move of another 200+ points on break below 5950 and keep stops near to 6080

While many stock discussed yesterday at ITG did not get triggered as a transaction, it is likely that they will get activated in a couple of days.

Happy trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

TCS - Investors exit signal ?

TCS gave good results. Stock prices opened stronger but they closed much lower in negative territory.

The prices were 'already' discounting' a good result and hence when the results were out, the stock fell. Many fundamental analysts / investors may find this hard to digest .. But lets leave that to their own judgement.

The stock price of TCS seems to be suggesting exit by Investors at current levels.Volumes on negative days are rising. Time to be cautious.

Essentially, the risk of holding the stock is now much higher than it was a few months back. And, as I often point out in my workshops, the investing game is more about managing risk than about earning abnormal returns!



A break below Rs 775 should trigger further selling pressure which may take the scrip to near Rs 700 (or sub-700) levels. Positional traders may want to keep their stops near to Rs 815/- after the break out.

Many other stocks are suggesting sell signals while there are some few which are actually giving buying triggers. We shall be discussing these today in our ITG meeting !

Interestingly those who track currencies too may want to check some interesting developments on that front ! .. more of this in subsequent blogposts. . .

Happy Trading !!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy
www.investogyan.com

TISCO - may melt soon !

The Nifty opened quite weak on global fear over the Goldman Sachs 'fraud'!. In fact I presume it is not the only reason. Somewhere in their heart of hearts, people may have an apprehension whether this is only the tip of the iceberg ? Well, Americans are known for this.

As for the other stock movements, TISCO which has been rising on back of rising steel prices seems to be set for a correction. Delivery based invesstors may actually want to exit and take their profits home.



A Break below Rs 660/- should lead to a fall near to Rs 580-590 in the near term. Positional traders may keep stops near to 690/-. Option traders may want to create strategies on this basis!

The RSI and also other advanced indicators (not shown here) are suggesting higher possibility of Rs 660/- being broken.

Watch out !

Happy Trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Nifty - a short term rounding top ?

The Nifty's mvoement for past few days was what we discussed in the ITG group meetings. Even the sectors and stocks indicated have given indicated moves.

Currently it seems that the Nifty is making a rounding top (on the short term at least) and could be targeting a level of 5050 in coming days.



Moreover, many index heavyweights are getting weak and with the results season on, we may see selling pressure in upmoves.

Keep an eye on 5245 in intraday. Upmoves will face resistance now at 5290 (the down break out level indicated in the ITG)

Happy profit booking !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

INFY -maturing stage setting in?

The Infosys results actually surprised me. A down quarter was not what I was expecting. It makes me wonder whether the 'Growth Phase' of this industry is near completion and a 'maturity stage' is setting in!

Even the monthly charts of Infosys Tech seems to suggest that we may be very close to a peak.



The previous peaks were made in year 2000 (the 'start-up' stage of the industry) and the second peak was in 2007 (the growth stage). The recent peak when viewed with the current quarterly results may well be suggesting to the long term investors to sit up and re-evaluate their 'buy and hold' long term strategy.

(yes - price analysis is as useful to long term investors as to short term ones)
Those of you who hold the stock may want to encash some profits and invest in some other 'sunrise' industry!

Happy investing

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

THE GOLD BULLS ARE BACK!

While Nifty remained suppressed , GOLD and other metals had a filed 'week' last week. GOLD touched a recent high of $1165 and it seems that the weakness triggered by the formation of the Head and Shoulder on GOLD (when it made a peak of $1225) is being negated.

As students of technical analysis, we need to surely learn from this move- The down target of the H&S formation was not achieved fully and the prices reversed again.

It seems that GOLD is set to remain positive and in coming few weeks we should not be surprised if the previous high of $1225 is tested.



Overall major support is now at $1100 and until that , traders may use down moves to buy more in to this yellow metal.

Well, It seems that precious metals are again in demand! Those who are holding physical gold are surely smiling wide (especially the ladies). . .

Happy gold rush!
CA RAJIV D KHATLAWALA
www.investogyan.com

Reliance Ind - short term reversal ?

The Nifty gave off previous three days of gains. A couple of days back I had indicated support at 5320 and a crucial one at 5275. Watch the 5275 tomorrow. Break below that should lead to further profit booking.

And one stock which may lead the markets below 5275 is RELIANCE. It had formed an 'inverted hammer' yesterday suggesting a halt to the recent upmove. and today it gave off.

Watch the Rs.1095 level. Break below this would tell investors to cash in their profits and go on sidelines.



Short sellers may trade options keeping a stop of Rs 1140 in mind, for down target near to Rs 1035 in the short term.

Many other frontline stocks are turning weak. Keep tight stoplosses to protect yourself from any 'shock'!

Happy Trading!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.
www.investogyan.com

USDINR . time for corrective rise!

The Nifty opened strong in the morning but again gave an indecision candle (doji). The market is becoming increasingly confused and it seems, there is some underlying order below the confusion....

The USDINR , which usually goes agaisnt the Nifty, has shown signs of reversing its recent downtrend. The rupee hitting highs is not at all good for the exporters and the RBI yesterday intervened.



The USDINR chart has formed a bullish engulfing pattern on daily charts and the indicators are in oversold zone. this should suggest a corrective rise towards 45.50 - 45.80 levels.

Traders may keep a strict stop at 44.20 .

Happy Trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Nifty - will the strength sustain ?

Today may be clearly the day of Midcaps. Many midcap stocks including those we had discussed in ITG gave good movements in an otherwise sluggish market. RComm, DLF and RPower gave nice moves.

Nifty in fact has given a 'doji ' formation at a 52 week high. Time for caution we may say.



The immediate support for the Nifty is at 5320 and a crucial support is at 5275 levels. Break and close below this level only can suggest an end to this upmove.

Incidentally, you may note that while the Nifty has been rising in the past 8 weeks the volumes have been lower almost each week. It may suggest that the 'biggies' are just trading for short term gains rather than actually pumping in money for long term.

I expect that the day of 'option writing' is not far off...

Happy trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy
www.investogyan.com

GTL Infra - smooth Road ahead !

The Nifty came out of the consolidation and broke above the 5325 resistance and touched a new recent high of 5377!

And yes the sector which we analysed in the ITG gave the needed boost today. (In fact one scrip which we analysed a couple of sessions back (Apar Ind) hit the 20% circuit today..)

In fact what I understand is that these are the times of 'dart board' trading - pick up any stock and it would rise in a couple of weeks ... (wooops - have we experienced this before?)

But as the saying goes - Make hay while the Sun shines. . .

One stock in the infrastructure space which is coming out of consolidation is GTL INFRA.



Consider a break above Rs 45.50/- as a sign of further buying momentum and target a price of Rs 58-60+ in coming days ... Keep your stop at Rs 40/-.

Happy trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

EURO - reversal ahead!

The Euro has been under consistent selling pressure since the Greek problem started. It touched a low of 1.3267 against the USD and has since rebounded to 1.3550 levels.

On the price charts (2 hr) it has made what we call a 'Inverse Head and Shoulder' Pattern suggesting that the sell off / panic is now behind us.



Once can look forward for the Euro to strengthen against the USD to a target level of 1.3825 - 1.40 levels in the coming days.

Consider 1.3375 as the crucial support / stoploss for any trade initiated.

The stock markets the world over are witnessing cautious bullishness and most countries are 'showing' signs of revival. The indices are rising , but with hesitation.

Forex traders may see good opporunities in other 'Euro' pairs.

Happy trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy
www.investogyan.com