SPARC- can brighten your portfolio!

The Nifty moves as anticipated. Many index weighted stocks saw selling pressure, while some midcaps did see buying interest.

One of the stocks which we have analysed earlier too in our ITG meeting is SPARC (Sun Pharma Advanced Research Centre).

The stock has broken out of a long term trend line on huge volumes and it seems that the medium to long term trend is highly positive.



While those who attended the ITG have had their entry earlier, even at current price of Rs 99+ the stock should be good for medium to long term.

Keep a stoploss near to Rs 83 and wait for an initial target between 124-130.

Incidentally, you may want to check RCOM (analysed a few days back on this blog).. The close today is encouraging.Even a move above 174 should create fireworks in intraday!

Happy Trading!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

NIFTY - U Turn ahead...!

The impact of the continously negative AD Line of past few days was prominent today as the NIFTY saw heavy profit booking in the frontline counters as also many midcap counters.

On the daily charts, Nifty futures has formed a 'bearish engulfing' candlestick pattern suggesting imminent reversal.



We may consider immediate support at 5240 (NF) and a break below this should lead to further selling pressure in the index weighted stocks.

Down targets for NF will be 5180 (not shown on chart) and then sub-5075 levels. Resistance will be obvious at 5300-5315 levels (NF).

Incidentally, even in this weakening market, there are some stocks (and sectors) which are likely to go against the trend and rise. These will be discussed today in the ITG Group!

Happy Trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

TVS Motor - will it Zoom?

The Nifty created a new high as it surpassed the 5318 level. It has closed lower at 5300 levels... While the index inches up everyday, the AD line inches lower everyday!. Even today, the Advance to decline ratio was negative. Frequent Profit booking is the best strategy.

TVS Motors has been hovering below Rs 81 for almost three years now and it seems that a break and close above 83 should trigger new buying interest in the stock.



Keep a stoploss near to Rs 68 after break out and book profit near to 100-110 levels.

Many stocks discussed in ITG have given good moves today too... More stock will be analysed tomorrow!

Happy trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy
www.investogyan.com

Dr Reddy's .. Topped out ??

The Nifty again gave a positive close while the advance to decline ratio was negative... (something fishy going on ?)

Well investor money was being pumped in to the 'defensive' Pharma sector for the past few weeks and it seems its leader DR REDDY's has run its course.

On the daily charts it has shown some sign of 'fatigue' .. Investors in this stock may want to book profits or at least tighten their exit price level near to Rs 1250/-



Short term traders may want to sell below Rs 1270 with stoploss placed at Rs 1305 for a short term down target of Rs 1220... (as trend is up, wait for break below 1270)

The sector we analysed in ITG group meeting is surely doing good ... !

Happy Trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy
www.investogyan.com

COPPER - at melting point!!...

The Nifty gave a good move in intraday today (i am sure my participants of the intraday workshops could profit from this)

Well the Advance to decline ratio was surprisingly (?) negative. Lets see how things turn up in next few days.

COPPER among the various industrial metals is likely to see a correction on downside. In fact Lead and Zinc both have started to move down since last few days.



A break below 333 in MCX Copper should be enough to trigger further selling in Copper and one should then target prices near to Rs 310 and then sub-300. Keep your stops near Rs 344 in any case.

Incidenatlly the sector which we analysed in our ITG meet has started its move today !! (more of this in our next ITG)

Happy Trading !
CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy
www.investogyan.com

Nifty at 'Crossroads'

The Nifty movement was quite pathetic today. In fact my intraday observation was that while market was supposedly positive, many stocks were witnessing profit booking. The Advances to Decline ratio too was negative.

The technical charts suggest that the Nifty is again at the crossroad. It has got resistance from a medium term support line, which incidentally is also near to the previous high of 5300.



Consider immediate intraday support at 5170 below which profit booking may be seen. Upmoves may be used to exit longs especially in frontline stocks.

Midcaps remain positive and full of activity. Many of such midcaps are to be discussed today in ITG meeting.

I would watch for 'sector' specific movements !

Happy Trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy
www.investogyan.com

RComm .. Call connected!!

Hello Friends,
You will be pleased to know that this will be my 300th post on this blog!

The Nifty traded with weakness and it seems that the Repo rate hike gave the reason for the market to fall....

But the more interesting news today which 'shocked' me was on Bloomberg... The breaking news on bloomberg was : "March 22 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks dropped and the oil price slid for a third day after a surprise interest-rate increase in India fanned concern the global recovery will stall as economic stimulus programs are wound back"

I am sure Indian government would be proud that its financial policies are affecting the energy markets !!

Considering the sector wise rotation happening in the markets, Telecom seems to be the contrarian sector. RComm seems to be bottoming out (temporarily as of now) and I expect a rebound towards Rs 195 / 205 levels. Keep your stops near to Rs 160.



In fact there are many more such 'contrarian' stocks which are likely to move up in a falling market... (But we shall discuss many of them in the ITG group tomorrow)

Happy trading !!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy
www.investogyan.com

SUZLON .. Where will the Wind blow ?

The Nifty continued its 'timepass' movement and today again the advance to decline ratio was negative ... (Kya koi gadbad hai ?)

Eurozone is again in problem, and the EuroUSD has gain seen selling pressure, after the 16 nation EuroZone was not in agreement as to how to bring Greece out of its mess... There are also talks of IMF getting involved now ... Lets see how the Euro USD plays out..

Coming back to stock specific moves, I am sure my ITG participants have earned from the stocks discussed on Tuesday.

Suzlon is one company which is currently in hibernation ..



I expect that a close beyond 78.50 should give a boost and a break out thereafter above Rs 80 should give an immediate target of Rs 90/- keep stop near Rs 72/- which is a crucial support level now. . .

Happy trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy
www.investogyan.com

Indian VIX at ALL TIME LOW !!!!!

NIFTY remained steady today and more of scrip specific moves were seen today. Even the the Index rose, the advance to decline ratio was negative... Concentrate on select Mid Cap stocks (yes we discussed mostly midcaps in our ITG Group and most have given moves in last two days)

I presume not many people follow the Volatility Index. Yes - India too has its own VIX and the NSE calculates the VIX daily from the prevailing index options rates.



The world over, the VIX is presumed to be a contrarian indicator. Peaks in the VIX have coincided with market bottoms (except event based moves) . It logically follows that market highs may have a relation to VIX lows...

The Nifty VIX has hit its all time low yesterday (Mar 17) (data started since Nov 07) and that could be a sign of caution to the bulls... But midcaps may continue to outperform as the VIX is computed on Nifty index options and so non-index stocks may still have steam left.

As for stock specific moves, IDEA seems to be giving strong move ( I analysed it on 2nd March .. Watch Bharti and DLF in coming days !

As for Nifty - keep an eye on 5205... !

Happy Trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy
www.investogyan.com

Your Next HOT STOCK - HANGSENG INDEX

Starting tomorrow (Thursday Mar 18) , Indian investors will have the alternative of investing in yet another index - Hongkong's Hangseng Index !!

While the NFO of the Hangseng ETF could gather about Rs 55 crores only, I expect that with the huge popularity of the Hangseng Index, the corpus should grow over time.

In fact in my previous month's newsletter from Investogyan, I had indicated that the correlation of the Hangseng and the Nifty is highest at about 97%.. So it will be 'more or less' similar to investing in Nifty ! But then, why not have a 'phoren' security in our portfolio !!!



The question is now whether one should invest in Hangseng index or not ??

Well, the price charts for the index suggests 19500 and 22000 as 'no man's land' and if it goes beyond 22000 only then one can think of investing in Hangseng. Current level is near 21300.

Happy global investing !!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academuy
www.investogyan.com

IDFC .. near break out!

The Nifty gave a strong move today after a so many days of slumber! .. Imagine - even Reliance giving traders a 3% jump in intraday !! I think it was quite a good time for intraday traders today

IDFC is one stock which is good not only technically but also fundamentally ..



Talking of its technicals, I presume that a break above Rs 168 should trigger move buying (especially from institutions) and an immediate target of Rs 182 is likely in coming days .. Keep a stoploss near Rs 160 ...

I presume that a close beyond Rs 182 should be further positive for the stock.

A lot of midcaps have given buy signals (and this we are actually going to discuss in our ITG group today ) I may not be sure if the Nifty movement of today will continue tomorrow , but the midcaps are surely preparing for a good move!

Happy trading !!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy
www.investogyan.com

EUROUSD - ALL IZ WELL !!

The Nifty movement has been 'too sideways' for the past 6 trading days... But during the same time frame, there is a good amount of price activity in currencies - especially the world's highest traded currency pair - EUROUSD...

I had suggested on 9th Mar blogpost that the EuroUSD is likely move up especially after it closes above 1.3680. The break out has come in and I expect more upward move inthe Euro against the dollar.



Fresh positions can be built and added further on break beyond 1.3790 for a target near to 1.40+ levels .. (exact target calculation was done in my weekend course)..

It seems that the Greece problem is at least temporarily taken care off - the prices are suggesting that.. We only hope that another european country does not blow up in the near future !!!

As for commodities , there are in line with the stock markets - i.e. going nowhere in particular!

Happy currency trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy
www.investogyan.com

Bharti Airtel .. Call connected !!

The NIFTY'absorbed' the IIP Data of 16.7% and remained indecisive today too. The 'behavior' of the market suggests that it is not too comfortable at higher levels. Most large caps and also some mid caps are showing signs of fatigue.... Incidentally today's Advance to Decline ratio is almost 1:2... which is quite weak considering that the Nifty closed in positive territory....

Bharti Airtel is one stock which I had analysed in the ITG Group and I am sure your entry has taken place at lower levels.. It has closed positively ..



Expect a level of Rs 330 - 345 in coming days and keep a stop near to 289/-. And yes, this scrip has the ability to go 'against' the trend.

Happy trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy
www.investogyan.com

DLF and others ...

Hello friends,

Though I have given today's blogpost in the morning, I thought that after the day's movements today, you all may want to keep a track on DLF along with Bharti Airtel and SCI.... Incidentally I have already discussed these in the ITG Group on tuesday so it will not be proper for me to reveal the trades ...

But at least you can do some homework yourselves !!!!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

CRUDE OIL .. crucial levels

The Nifty movement has been more or less lacklustre , in line with US and Asian markets. In fact it seems the world financial markets are at a standstill , waiting for a trigger! Which direction? time will tell but till that time it is a waiting game ...

Crude Oil has been relatively steady near to $80 since a long time.



I expect that the current range of $83 and $76 is good for short term traders who buy on dips and sell in rallies...

Once this range breakout occurs, expect a more steady and directional move. Watch out, it may have the capacity to tell which direction our financial markets will move !

Happy watching !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd
www.investogyan.com

EURO USD ... bottom is near ?

The NIFTY was not able to sustain its momentum and was down today. Many heavy weights are showing weakness since past couple of days. Watch the 5080 level for intraday !

As for the Euro, it seems there is some relief in sight ahead for Greece. Well, at least that is what the prices (of Euro USD) are telling us.



While it is currently at 1.36, I expect that a close above 1.3680 should give us the necessary trigger to go long on Euro against the USD. Traders on the Indian exchanges, however , should watch out!!

On break out one should target a level of 1.3950 - 1.40 in medium term

As for commodities, book profit in bullion in case you hold them ...

Happy trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy
www.investogyan.com

Tata Motors ... near speed limit

The Nifty opened in up gap and remained more or less range bound. There was more scrip specific moves.

One stock which rallied post the Budget was Tata Motors. It seems to have run up its distance and is slowing down. Short covering seems to be over for the time being (which will be confirmed in a couple of days).



The Intraday charts of the scrip (not shown here) suggest that Rs 788 is crucial support for intraday. A break below this may lead to profit booking.

Consider Rs 818 as major resistance for the scrip.

Happy 'intraday' trading in this stock !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.
www.investogyan.com

Nifty - indecisive moves

The Nifty seems to be indecisive after three days of 'post-budget' rally.. 5100+ levels seems to be a profit booking level for traders and we are witnessing more stock specific moves.

The recent rise in most stocks of the index are still corretive in nature. While some midcaps have turned positive technically, we may say most of the stocks are witnessing corrective rebound (Bharti Airtel is a good example here)



Consider 5100+ level as profit booking level and intraday supports need to be considered at 5055 levels ...

Keep strict stoploss for frontline stocks or hedge your positions.

Happy post budget trading...

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy
www.investogyan.com

Bombay dyeing. . short term move

The NIFTY continued its rise for the third day after the budget ... Woops .. I presume the extent of 'pent up' demand was quite high and it seems the 'big players' (you-know-who) seems to have liked what the FM said... After all what THEY think only matters in our markets! !

Among the Midcaps, Bombay Dyeing has been in consolidation mode for some time now and short to medium support is good at Rs.510 levels....



Consider a break above Rs 565 as a good short term buying opportunity for a target of Rs 615+ .. keep your stops near to 530.

Incidentally, many of the stocks discussed yesterday in our ITG group meeting have worked well in today's market! ...

Well, trade upside till the rally lasts... as they say "Make hay while the Sun Shines"

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.
www.investogyan.com

IDEA - what an Idea Sirji!!

The NIFTY rallied another 90+ points and I presume there would be an equally large smile on Pranab Da's face!! So much of a rally in two days - without doing anything in the budget!!

Well, traders watch out for the 5065 resistance. This level may be used to book profits on current longs. On lower side, intraday break below 4990 must be your stop.

Some midcaps which were sideways before the budget, have started their directional journey... One of them which I was watching closely was IDEA CELLULAR.



Medium term investors may want to buy the stock on a break above Rs 63.50 and hold it with a stoploss of Rs 55. Expect targets near to Rs 78 - 83 in the medium term... (i don't expect quick gains here)

The mid caps are not turning madcaps and hence players and traders may still keep a watch out for such stocks for 12-15% moves ...

And yes don't forget to 'take' your profits home!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.
www.investogyan.com