Nifty - 'Iss paar ya uss paar !!! '

Intraday traders in Nifty seem to be enjoying their time ... But, it seems the positional traders are stressing out... 5200 is surely the psychological level for the 'elusive' break out!

If that comes, you are again on a bull rise and if not .. well we remain in 'No man's land' . What seems to be difficult for traders is the ability to change the view , but I think - like always - let prices decide . "Price is King" !! We are but humble followers of the King!



The Nifty level of 5115 is crucial for intraday while 5200 should be treated as break out level on upper side.... The FII theory, indicated yesterday, still remains and we must be ready for 'false breakouts' especially since US markets and players will be in holiday mood from tomorrow (Dec 25)...

In coming days , be ready to change your view fast and frequently .... if you are not able to do that - well, you too can take a 'Christmas holiday'!

I see a lot of action and trends in commodities markets - especially the metals. a second phase of upmove seems to be starting . . .

And yes - Do enjoy your 'Christmas holidays' - 'Market mein movement to chalta rahegaa"

Happy trading
CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

NIFTY - a good rally ? ?

The stock markets moved beyond what any one (almost) could have thought of yesterday. A 3% jump!!

The discussed and cited reasons was the 'optimism' of the market over the FM's statement (again!) of a 10% GDP growth . . . That's called - keeping the hope alive!

Well but can it not be one more instance of the 'age-old' reason of improved FII NAVs before they pack their bags for Christmas? Today's rally surely would help them a lot. . . (I wonder why we never have such rallies on Diwali day - when WE close our books)

Also one more thing which actually 'surprised' me today was the fact that while the stock markets rallied 3%, the USDINR was actually up 3p!!!!! This fact actually triggered in my mind, the theory of a FII engineered rally .



What we need to see is that whether this rise will be avble to break beyond 5200. The indicators are still negative and hence I shall not take an anticipatory opinion. Let prices ,as always, tell us what to do...

For tomorrow Nifty 5165-5175 range becomes crucial for intraday . Watch out

Happy trading!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

GOLD - time again to glitter ?

Yesterday I saw one of the TV Channels giving out trophies for "Indian of the Year' !! While watching it, what went through my mind was that , if at all, the trophy of the "Indian of the Year' must have gone to "The Indian Investor" !! who came out of the roller coaster ride of the past few months and more importantly - this achieved, inspite of the economy!

Time to watch where Gold is moving. After testing the magical figure of $1225 , it has since retraced back towards $ 1100 and below. This was bound to happen as the race towards $1225 was 'parabolic' and steep.



The GOLD Chart (in $ terms - not MCX) suggests that a further fall towards $1075 and below should actually provide short term traders an opportunity to buy it for a quick rebound. I presume this should correspond to about Rs 16300 price range on MCX.

Though the indicators have started to weaken, there is a high possibility of a rebound from the oversold level - below $1075. . .

Watch out !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

CNX IT - may reverse any time ....

The Nifty continued its weakness as expected... Frontline stocks took to profit booking and the recent movements of the IT sector stocks too are not encouraging.

The CNXIT index seems to be nearing a reversal point and one can expect it to 'help' in the downward journey of the Nifty.



The CNX IT index has crucial support at 5645 - based on intraday charts. A break below this should start the down move. the daily charts should later suggest weakness on the breaking of the crucial 5600 level.

Investors who are still holding their IT winners, may consider profit booking...

Happy Trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

Natural Gas - Tomorrow's CrudeOil ??

The Nifty broke the crucial 4990 ... And that too on a weekend... At least the suspense is diluted! I presume now most of the traders and investors are 'deciding' their next moves....

Recently I read an altericle on 'alternative fuel for the future' and one of the conclusions was that since Crude Oil is relatively costly, Natural Gas has the potential for eating away Crudeoil's market share in the energy space...

Well, earlier there was a high positive correlation between Crude and NatGas which was recently (past 2 years) violated. Even when Crude rose, Nat Gas had been falling... So now if Crude is 'not rising' will NatGas rise ? ?

That promtped me to check the price behaviour of NatGas. It seems NatGas prices are changing their trend.



From the recent downward trend of the past one-and-half year, the trend is clearly changing on upside. The long term MAs too are suggesting trend change. While my long term RSI (not shown here) is already in buying mode...

I shall not be surprised if NatGas price shoots up towards Rs 310 initially and then to Rs 360/- on the MCX !!

Happy trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

USD INR ... trend changing ?

The Nifty again 'bored' the players today. But since technical signals are weakening, it may be a question of time before it breaks the crucial 4990

As for the USDINR, which has a inverse correlation with the markets, it is showing signs of strenghtening. It touched a high of 47/- today and close at 46.90.



Some technical indicators are suggesting a change in trend while a couple of advanced indicators suggest that it would gain momentum in the coming days ...
And if that happens, the Nifty down break of 4990 may be imminent.

Incidentally, I presume the CNXIT index too which was strong , is showing some 'initial' signs of exhaution.... Next couple of days working should be able to throw more light. . .

Happy trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

BankNifty - May lead the market down!!

The NIFTY today touched a low of 5004 and recovered to test the resistance of 5070-80 range. This may be treated as corrective rise as suggested yesterday.

Sector wise, the 'old economy' and the banking stocks are down while the 'Techies' are quite strong. The CNXIT index is getting stronger but at the same time Bank Nifty is weakening.

The Price chart of BankNifty suggests that it is very near to changing its trend on downside and the Price charts are also showing some 'interesting' price patterns ( Yes I think I will discuss this further today in my Technical Analysis batch).


Well , those of you who hold banking stocks in your trading or investment portfolio, be careful... a 10% fall from current levels is highly likely and this may well be the reason for the Nifty to break the crucial 4990 level....

Happy 'profit booking'

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

Nifty - Momentum Lost !!

The Nifty held on to the crucial intraday support of 5080 for long before giving in... The break of this intraday support saw it lose another 60 points and giving a bearish candle.

The indicators are suggesting falling momentum and hence upmoves should be treated as corrective annd should be used to exit long positions... In fact I have been writing often, that as a trader I would be more comfortable only beyond 5200 !!



Weakness seems to be setting in and a close below 4990 should speed up the fall towards 4800 ... And yes pray that the markets hold 4800 levels ... if that breaks.... well..... (don't worry - we shall analyse when it happens)

Many frontline stocks are giving sell signals and I presume those of you who are active stock traders can surely find something juicy to short sell!!

Happy Trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.
www.investogyan.com

CRUDE OIL ... Not boiling !!

The Nifty again played spoil sport ! .. In the morning even though Asian markets were down, the Indian markets opened positive and again attempted to go near to 5182, failed and then closed near 5100. Keep an aye on 5065!

One of the recent 'hot' news is that CRUDEOIL fell below $70 (currently at $68). While I expected that in the recently concluded rally, Crude oil would go near Rs 4000/- on MCX, it essentially fell short of it due to the exchange rate.



It has broken an important support of Rs 3450/- (on MCX). This suggests further weakness and down target could be at Rs 3150 initially.

What is more worrying is that the recent rise during the last few months was not strong enough to take it to the 50% retracement.

Would this fall in Crude oil bring the stock markets down? When Crude oil was rising, the fundamental analysts, were screaming that it is a sign of 'economic recovery' as demand for crude seem to have risen and hence stock markets were gaining. Now that Crude oil is falling will they talk of reverse logic ? Or will they find some other (convenient)reason for the rising US stock market????

Happy trading
CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.
www.investogyan.com

Nifty - an DOJI week!!

The Nifty gets surely nervous as it approaches 5200 ... Market psychology and Market comfort zones in action!! ... (my particpants would know what these are )

Well, It seems we have another week with a DOJI candle on the Nifty. The daily charts are going sideway suggesting the inherent confusion.



Scrip specific moves are rampant. And I am sure those who traded Bharti Airtel (analysed on this blog on 4th Dec when price was Rs 315/-. The target indicated of Rs 345 is achieved...

I presume sector wise telecom remains good in a down move but we shall analyse the stocks at appropriate time..

I expect that the Nifty support now of 5065 is important and below this, slide of another 100+ points not ruled out ... Keep a watch on Reliance !

Happy trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

USD INR turning +ve !!

The Nifty did give a good rise yesterday but the Dow Jones and Asian markets showed weakness.... This is 'normal'...

The saying goes 'The only thing that is constant is Change' ... We 'marketmen' can redraft this as 'Only thing that will be constant is confusion (read volatility)'...

The Dollar index rise gave jitters to Gold , Crude, Silver and other metals ... I expect that the rise in dollar against the rupee too is likely.

USDINR charts suggest a good support near Rs 46/- which is the 50% retracement level of the entire rise from Rs 39/- to Rs 53/-. And now a break out above Rs 47.20 should be able to generate more steam and hence put huge pressure on the rupee...



Overall the USDINR has good support at Rs 46 levels and unless this is broken downward, expect the rupee to depreciate further !!

Happy tracking!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

Dollar rises - Will stocks and Commodities fall?

One of my regular readers of this blog seem to have read my mind too!

Well I have been closely tracking the Dollar (Dollar index) for the past few days to get some better idea of how stocks and commodities should behave in coming days.

Gold and Silver went in to correction and lost their technical momentum. Stock indices worldwide too seem to be losing their recent momentum...

Dollar Index is surely on a rebound path with technical parameters favoring a further rise.



Well , that should surely mean that stocks , metal and bullion may go in correction or sideway mode (depending on their individual strength)

As of Nifty - Watch out for the 5030 level !!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

Bharti Airtel - Line clear ?

The Nifty seems to be 'fighting' with the 5100+ levels and upmoves are getting resistances. A fall from these levels below 5030 in next few days, could be negative for the markets in the medium term (Why? ... in next blog post)

Bharti Airtel has the tendency to be the contrarian index stock. Currently it is showing signs of 'bottoming' out and I expect that a break above Rs 315/- should trigger buying interest which can take to Rs 345 initially and then to Rs 370 levels.



The Rs 375 levels should give a strong resistance to prices.

Happy trading - but be careful with other stocks / nifty!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

Tata Motors - Reverse gear ?

The Nifty has been making a 'doji' pattern for two days - suggesting high confusion among market players. 5100 Nifty is the area beyond which market players are not comfortable.

As for individual stocks which gave initial signals of fatigue is TATA MOTORS.



Today the stock has formed what we call a 'Bearish engulfing' candle stick pattern. The pattern suggests a break to the ongoing uptrend and signals of fatigue.

Investors who hold this stock may want to book profits and keep some money in the bank !

A break below 700/- will be treated further negative.

(Incidentally - My Basic Fundamental Analysis (yes you read it right) course is scheduled on Sat 5th Dec. More information - www.investogyan.com)

Happy profit booking !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.

Suzlon . . Positive winds ..

The Nifty touched the overhead resistance near to 5130 and has closed above this level. A good and strong rebound from the 'Dubai' panic. Intraday traders watch the 5085 levels for tomorrow ... !

Well stock specific - Suzlon seems to be generating buying interest yet again.



The technical indicators - especially the RSI - suggests that the buying momentum is building up and that investors who can take a risk of Rs 15/- in this stock can targets the Rs 110 - 115 levels in days to come. ..

Woops - mid caps are turning up again .. More than meets the eye ???

And yes, all bullion traders out there - watch Silver - a break beyond $19 should see lot of action ....

Happy trading !!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.