Nifty - negative weekly close

Global cues and markets are not at all in favour of stabilization of the financial markets with the US still hung over the 700 billion Dollar bailout. Many analysts feel that whether the bail out occurs or not - the US may be heading for further trouble.



The Nifty has given a negative weekly close and the daily charts are in fact also suggesting a further down move, initially to test the previous low of 3800 and a break below which one can expect the target of 3600 levels.

Happy (?!) trading
CA Rajiv D Khatlawala

SBI - can u bank on it????

Nifty touched the indicated level of 4140 and went below it on close. The next immediate level is 4100 and below that 4070. Consider resistance at 4175 and 4220.

Among the stocks to fall today after a couple of days of stagnation, was SBI.



It is getting strong resistance near Rs 1600 levels and if you notice on the chart, it is a classic case of an earlier support becoming a resistance level.

I expect that a break below 1450 should lead to further fall. Overall trend of the stock can be consider weak unless it crosses Rs 1625 on upside. Even Bank Nifty has a downward bias on the intraday charts as it broke today below 6200.

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala

ZINC ... signs of trend reversal!

The Nifty made a doji (almost) today just near a crucial resistance level.

Consider 4200 as a crucial support level and a break below this should give a down target of 4140 - 4100 levels. Resistance is strong at 4270 on intraday charts.

It would be interesting to track Dow Jones today - if it does not revive after a $700 billion booster ; I wonder what else can save the US economy from further deterioration!

ZINC METAL on the MCX is showing some signs of trend reversal. The metal has good support now near Rs 78.50 levels on the MCX. Expect a target of Rs 88.50 in the short term and Rs 92-93 in the medium term.



The chart above is self explanatory

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala

NIFTY ! some temporary relief?

Nifty moved almost 10% from it'a low of 3800 of thursday. Many traders and investors may have already concluded the end of the bearish phase.

But we technicans are too rigid ! I am still tempted to maintain that a ban or curb on short selling by regulatory bodies the world over cannot be a reason for a long term investor to jump in with his money ( Also, I wonder why they did not have a 'buying long' ban in January ????)

Look at it this way - why should regulatory bodies need to do such a thing as curbing short selling ? simply, because they fear that, if left to itself, the markets may witness further selling pressure, which is the result of an already grown financial crises the world over.

And I have my doubt whether this will settle down soon. Our downtrend is still 'young' - only 9 months old and we may still have another quarter to go before we see light!!

The chart below is more or less self explanatory



Happy trading !!

CA RAjiv D Khatlawala

GOLD - Glittering bright!!

The Nifty movement today was psychological one- it seems. It touched it's recent low of near 3800 levels on opening with a gap down and the most likely scenario was that the bearish sentiment would not continue. The participants of my workshops know why !!

But the next time the Nifty tries to retest those levels, it will most likely break them. Lets keep our fingers crossed. For tomorrow (Friday) 4075-4090 is a resistance area while crucial support is at 4010.

GOLD made a historic run yesterday in the international market when it rallied more than $80 in a single day. In the Indian markets too , after taking crucial support at 11000+ levels, it has rebounded. Fundamental analysis attribute this to a shift of funds in to Gold due to the financial crises faced the world over, after the Lehman bankrupcy.



Consider the bullish trend in Bullion intact till the Rs 11000/- level holds. In the upward momentum, I expect that GOLD on MCX may reach a newer high, much before it does in New York.
Happy Trading!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala

IDFC - - near long term support!

The Nifty has had a roller coaster ride for the past two days - courtesy Lehman Bros. and Merryl lynch

Consider 4035 as a crucial support for intraday and 3980 on daily charts.



IDFC got hammered and quoted near it last years crucial support level of 78. I have given the weekly chart of IDFC and you would observe that there is long term support for the stock between Rs 66 and Rs 78/-.

I presume longer term traders (popularly known as investors)can buy the stock in this range with a 10% stop and hold.

Happy Trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala

Power Grid - powering ahead

One interesting stock in this falling market is POWER GRID.

It has crucial support at Rs 88/- and I expect that a break above Rs 101 will lead to further buying in the stock , irrespective of the market direction.



The target should be at Rs 127-130 levels

Nifty in the meantime has crucial support at 4200 and a break below this should make it test 4000 levels in the near future.

Happy Trading,

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
Head - Training and Research
Jhaveri Securities Ltd.

CRUDE -- will it Flare again??

NIFTY seems to be filling back the gap created by the nuclear deal news on Monday. And this gap filling was expected - when the overall trend is down, such gaps will be immediately filled.

Moreover one thing was still more relevant in this case - 'Stand alone Events cannot change market trends'

Going now to CRUDE OIL, which nowadays is on everyone's watch list, we saw a level of 102 being tested. On the MCX the Crude oil touched the equivalent low of Rs 4610/-.



The technical view is that on the MCX, it is likely to take support near the Rs 4500 levels. However in the international markets, it should take support near $ 100. The difference between the local levels and international levels is influenced by the rupee depreciation.

On taking support at Rs 4500/-, one can expect a rebound towards the 5100 price area - indicating correspondingly an 8 - 10% upmove in Crude (in dollar terms).

Happy Trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala

DLF- changing trend????

The NSG Waiver rally today made the Nifty jump more than 200 point and it ultimately closed up by 130 points. The Gap created may be filled up sooner than later.

For intraday consider support at 4465 below which immediate target is 4420. Upper resistance is at 4515 and 4545. Only a close above 4545 should be considered positive.



DLF is making an intersting pattern and a break above 540 should trigger further buying for a target at Rs 615/-. Keep stop initially at 490 and on break above Rs 575it can be trailed to Rs 520/-.

Longer Term investors too can buy the break out and keep stoploss at Rs 460 and hold for higher targets.

Happy Trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala

Nifty .. Near Crucial weekly support

The Nifty got resistance from it's falling trendline drawn from the high of May 2, 2008.

The weekly charts have shown a 'doji' formation suggesting indicesion after an attempt to cross 4500+ on the higher side.



For the coming week consider 4285 as the crucial support level and 4490 as the key break out level. A close below 4250 next week will trigger a fresh round of selling which can break the resistance-turned-support level of 4200

The weekly pivot point is at 4385 which can act as a resistance / support area for the coming week.

The technical indicators too are in indecision mode and may confirm the sell signals on a break below 4285.

Happy Trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala

Moser Baer - reversal on cards?

MOSERBAER has formed a triple bottom at the price of near Rs 88/- and is consolidating between 106 and Rs 90 for some time now.

I expect that a break out of Rs 106.50 ( especially with volumes) will give a target of Rs 132-135 in the short term.
In the medium term one can expect still higher prices.

All longs will need to have a stop at sub Rs 90 levels.

Happy Trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala