INFY -maturing stage setting in?

The Infosys results actually surprised me. A down quarter was not what I was expecting. It makes me wonder whether the 'Growth Phase' of this industry is near completion and a 'maturity stage' is setting in!

Even the monthly charts of Infosys Tech seems to suggest that we may be very close to a peak.



The previous peaks were made in year 2000 (the 'start-up' stage of the industry) and the second peak was in 2007 (the growth stage). The recent peak when viewed with the current quarterly results may well be suggesting to the long term investors to sit up and re-evaluate their 'buy and hold' long term strategy.

(yes - price analysis is as useful to long term investors as to short term ones)
Those of you who hold the stock may want to encash some profits and invest in some other 'sunrise' industry!

Happy investing

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

THE GOLD BULLS ARE BACK!

While Nifty remained suppressed , GOLD and other metals had a filed 'week' last week. GOLD touched a recent high of $1165 and it seems that the weakness triggered by the formation of the Head and Shoulder on GOLD (when it made a peak of $1225) is being negated.

As students of technical analysis, we need to surely learn from this move- The down target of the H&S formation was not achieved fully and the prices reversed again.

It seems that GOLD is set to remain positive and in coming few weeks we should not be surprised if the previous high of $1225 is tested.



Overall major support is now at $1100 and until that , traders may use down moves to buy more in to this yellow metal.

Well, It seems that precious metals are again in demand! Those who are holding physical gold are surely smiling wide (especially the ladies). . .

Happy gold rush!
CA RAJIV D KHATLAWALA
www.investogyan.com

Reliance Ind - short term reversal ?

The Nifty gave off previous three days of gains. A couple of days back I had indicated support at 5320 and a crucial one at 5275. Watch the 5275 tomorrow. Break below that should lead to further profit booking.

And one stock which may lead the markets below 5275 is RELIANCE. It had formed an 'inverted hammer' yesterday suggesting a halt to the recent upmove. and today it gave off.

Watch the Rs.1095 level. Break below this would tell investors to cash in their profits and go on sidelines.



Short sellers may trade options keeping a stop of Rs 1140 in mind, for down target near to Rs 1035 in the short term.

Many other frontline stocks are turning weak. Keep tight stoplosses to protect yourself from any 'shock'!

Happy Trading!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy Pvt Ltd.
www.investogyan.com

USDINR . time for corrective rise!

The Nifty opened strong in the morning but again gave an indecision candle (doji). The market is becoming increasingly confused and it seems, there is some underlying order below the confusion....

The USDINR , which usually goes agaisnt the Nifty, has shown signs of reversing its recent downtrend. The rupee hitting highs is not at all good for the exporters and the RBI yesterday intervened.



The USDINR chart has formed a bullish engulfing pattern on daily charts and the indicators are in oversold zone. this should suggest a corrective rise towards 45.50 - 45.80 levels.

Traders may keep a strict stop at 44.20 .

Happy Trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Nifty - will the strength sustain ?

Today may be clearly the day of Midcaps. Many midcap stocks including those we had discussed in ITG gave good movements in an otherwise sluggish market. RComm, DLF and RPower gave nice moves.

Nifty in fact has given a 'doji ' formation at a 52 week high. Time for caution we may say.



The immediate support for the Nifty is at 5320 and a crucial support is at 5275 levels. Break and close below this level only can suggest an end to this upmove.

Incidentally, you may note that while the Nifty has been rising in the past 8 weeks the volumes have been lower almost each week. It may suggest that the 'biggies' are just trading for short term gains rather than actually pumping in money for long term.

I expect that the day of 'option writing' is not far off...

Happy trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy
www.investogyan.com

GTL Infra - smooth Road ahead !

The Nifty came out of the consolidation and broke above the 5325 resistance and touched a new recent high of 5377!

And yes the sector which we analysed in the ITG gave the needed boost today. (In fact one scrip which we analysed a couple of sessions back (Apar Ind) hit the 20% circuit today..)

In fact what I understand is that these are the times of 'dart board' trading - pick up any stock and it would rise in a couple of weeks ... (wooops - have we experienced this before?)

But as the saying goes - Make hay while the Sun shines. . .

One stock in the infrastructure space which is coming out of consolidation is GTL INFRA.



Consider a break above Rs 45.50/- as a sign of further buying momentum and target a price of Rs 58-60+ in coming days ... Keep your stop at Rs 40/-.

Happy trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

EURO - reversal ahead!

The Euro has been under consistent selling pressure since the Greek problem started. It touched a low of 1.3267 against the USD and has since rebounded to 1.3550 levels.

On the price charts (2 hr) it has made what we call a 'Inverse Head and Shoulder' Pattern suggesting that the sell off / panic is now behind us.



Once can look forward for the Euro to strengthen against the USD to a target level of 1.3825 - 1.40 levels in the coming days.

Consider 1.3375 as the crucial support / stoploss for any trade initiated.

The stock markets the world over are witnessing cautious bullishness and most countries are 'showing' signs of revival. The indices are rising , but with hesitation.

Forex traders may see good opporunities in other 'Euro' pairs.

Happy trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
ValueTrade Academy
www.investogyan.com