Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Friends, Check this and pl give feedback

SBI - tough resistance !

The Nifty opened lower and later during the end of the day, broke the crucial weekly support of 5250... But I am sure my INTRADAY Participants would have earned nicely today !! It seems every day is a new day and we must approach the markets as such!

SBI has fixed the base rate (lending rate) at 7.5% (from July 1) and henceforth the borrowers will be able to avail loans on rates linked to this base rate... This should have the effect of higher interest rate cost to corporate India.

SBI the scrip is currently facing resistance at Rs 2390+ levels for the past few weeks and crossing that level is getting tough. After the base rate announcement, the scrip saw some selling pressure / profit booking and it has closed lower at 2290/-.



Consider support as crucial at 2265 and a close below this level can take the scrip towards 2100 or lower levels in coming days.

Investors holding the stock may want to book profits and exit for the time being. . .

Happy Trading !
CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Creating Educated Investors

Monday, June 28, 2010

Reliance - the next move ?

In my previous blog, I had indicated that the Nifty support is crucial at 5250 and that the weekly 'doji' will get confirmed once this level is broken.... Well, the markets refuse to become bearish just yet! ..

So watch the resistance of 5360-85 and remain long till 5250 is broken. . .

One stock which was on my radar for some time is index-heavyweight Reliance Industries. It has closed just near to the resistance level of 1095/-



A break above Rs 1100/- should technically bring in new buying interest and when this happens with volumes our next immediate target will become 1145.. A break beyond that level will open up fresh possibilities!!

Now, I wonder, if Reliance is likely to turn bullish, Nifty surely will not go the other side ....

And incidentally, many stocks discussed here are achieving targets and I am finding many new stocks which can return good money ...

Happy trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Creating Educated Investors
"If not the GODS, put the ODDS on your side"

Friday, June 25, 2010

Caution Ahead - "Gravestone Doji"!!!!

For the Indian stock markets the 18000 resistance seems to be a strong one to surpass. Not only technically but even fundamentally, the reasons for a sustained rise are getting lesser and lesser.

On the Weekly Price charts, Nifty has made what is known as ‘gravestone doji’. This is a reversal pattern in candlestick terminology.



A Break below 5250 may be considered signs of weakness and a further fall towards 5150 – 5040 cannot be ruled out.

Upper side moves have resistance near 5360-5375 levels which are quite difficult to surpass. In fact the techno-fundamental structure of the market is such that even if there is an upward break out (for some reason) one should still remain skeptical of the same.

Investors would do well in protecting their profits while traders may want to play the downside up to 5040 initially. Overall trend is likely to remain sideways between 4900 and 5300 till either of the extreme values are broken with volumes

Happy profit booking !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Creating Educated Investors
"If not the GODS, put the ODDS on your side"

Thursday, June 24, 2010

Will Euro fuel the Nifty ?

The Nifty remained more or less rangebound as expected on a settlement day. . . Watch the 5260 level for next couple of days...

The EuroUSD seems to be stabilising now (it was expected, especially since 'experts' started discussing about Euro Dollar Parity!!)

The EuroUSD pair seems to be developing a set up for a rebound and I expect that a break above 1.2450 should give the necessary boost. On break out expect immediate targets near 1.2750 and then beyond!



Stops need to be at 1.2270.

In recent past, the Indian markets had taken a beating whenever the Euro fell and so if Euro starts rising, we should 'logically' see an upward bias in the stock markets ... But then, didn't we see some 'decoupling' of Indian markets in last few days ???

The confusion prevails... Markets often do the reverse than what 'logic' suggests !! Keep your fingers crossed!

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Creating Educated Investors!
"If not the GODS, put the ODDS on your side"

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Suzlon - Change of Wind ahead

The Nifty seems to have become resilent to the world markets ... Just when every one started keeping track of the 'world events' the Indian markets (meaning , the big players) decoupled themselves. . . And believe me - the analysts in the media will now argue their heads off as to how there is a 'fundamental' shift !

Prices will tell everything... is my strong belief. For instance in my derivatives workshop just a couple of days back, we discussed and analysed that Unitech which was at Rs 73, should go beyond Rs 76 before June expiry... In fact, as a example of the practicality of my workshops, we even traded options on this basis! Price behavior gave us traders the signs - to catch!

Anyway, one stock which is still on my radar is SUZLON. I had analysed the scrip on this blog a few days back.



I expect that a break above Rs 58.50 will give the needed 'momentum' to the stock. Those holding it may continue it . . . Target remains !

Happy Trading !
CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Creating Educated Investors!

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

MLL - ready to sail . .

The Nifty remained more or less range bound today and the intraday bais was downward. No doubt, my intraday participants would have traded well today too though the profits may not have been phenomenal.

MLL (Mercator Liners) is one midcap stock which seems to have 'bottomed' out. It has tested support at Rs 42 in the past and rebounded.

At the current juncture, it took support again at Rs 42 nearabout levels and is currently quoting at Rs 47/-. A break above Rs 48/- should given the necessary fillip.



Buy on break above Rs 48 with a stoploss near Rs 44 for a target near to Rs 55/- in medium term.

The option trade which we discussed in my 'Practical Options trading' course yesterday - moved exactly as discussed !

Happy trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Monday, June 21, 2010

GVK Power . near break out!

The Nifty opened above the resistance level indicated on Friday as China let its Yuan appreciate against the dollar. . . The world markets seems to have made a U turn last week and this was clearly visible once the 5150 level weas broken upwards. .

I am not suprised by the rise, but I am surely surprised by the speed of the rise... Intraday traders (who have attended my workshops) surely would have got nice returns today. . And DLF suggested here at Rs 266 is almost near my second target (Rs 300)

Well,GVK Power was in news today as it gave a huge order to L&T.



The scrip has been witnessing some volume build up recently and I expect that a break above Rs 46 should give an upmove towards Rs 54 - 58 in medium term.

If you buy on break out, keep a stoploss near Rs 42/-

I was watching various midcap scrips today which seem to be readying for upmove in coming settlement. May be we will discuss a couple of them here....

Happy Trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Friday, June 18, 2010

Nifty - What now ?

The Nifty gave a 'correction' and it seems the Market Breadth was quite negative - 1:3. Some of the index heavy weights have given sell signals in intraday.

Watch the 5230 level in intraday and 5205 on daily charts... Keep them as SL for long positions. Resistance on upside is at 5300-5310.



World markets too are range bound with the Euro recovering against the USD. It has bounced back above 1.24 (as indicated in a couple of blogs earlier).

Many midcaps are positive / turning positive and may provide a good move.. In fact for one stock , we had done a 'Techno-Fundamental' analysis yesterday (in my practical fundamental analysis batch). Seems quite interesting..May be I may write about it in my coming blogs. . .

Happy Trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Balrampur Chini - sweetening . ..

I presume you all could make good trading profits out of Rpower/DLF... Even MTNL covered a few days back , has been moving with volumes today. . . Well, readers can at least interact in this regards. . .

The Nifty seems to be 'uncomfortable' near 5250 levels and I expect major support to be 5180... Even derivatives (F&O) activity is suggesting correction. .

One side counter which may be coming out of hibernation is Balrampur Chini.



A break above Rs 84/- should give us target at 98-100 in medium term (few weeks) ... Keep a stoploss near to Rs 77/-

A few stocks discussed recently (midcaps) have given nice movements .. Stick to midcaps.

Happy Trading !


CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Euro Fears recede . . .

The Nifty gave a good upmove as indicated yesterday and it tested the indicated level of 5220.... And all of you who read the blog and bought DLF and RPower ... would be sitting on good profits ... Well, a lot of midcaps have given good buying signals ...

The past couple of days financial market movement seems that suddenly "All is Well" with the markets ! And Indian markets have conveniently ignored the high Inflation and its impact on the economy... (I am going to discuss this in detail TODAY in my Advanced Fundamental Analysis workshop)

The Eurozone too seems to be bouncing back after the Euro was beaten up below 1.20. In fact last week when I watched some 'experts' discuss the possibility of Euro-Dollar parity (1:1) I was sure that the Euro will go the other way and that it is now actually ready to bounce !!



The Euro has given a buying signal and it seems that a break above 1.23 (curr price 1.2250) should give the necessary boost towards my target of 1.2550 and also beyond that.

Happy Trading !
CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Monday, June 14, 2010

RPower - powering ahead !

Friends, the Ahmedabad Seminar was lively and went well, If any of you could attend, I would like to have your feedback . . .

Today's market too went well. The Nifty close of 5180+ is a positive sign and if it sustains above 5225 , the better.

One stock on my radar was Rpower and that gave a good movement today.

RPOWER has broken above it's resistance level of Rs 165 and volumes , though not very large, are on higher side. A follow up buying tomorrow should be a good sign. .



The break out was at Rs 165 (I had discussed this entry level in my recent market analysis during the current workshop). Use price down move to buy at Rs 165 - 166 with a stoploss placed at Rs 150 for a target at Rs 190 - 200 in medium term (few weeks)

Happy trading . .

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Thursday, June 10, 2010

DLF . . on good grounds !

The Nifty gained impressively after remaining sideways in intial hours. I am sure after one-two hicups, my intraday trading participants caught the rally ... Watch 5120 tomorrow...

One stock which was the erstwhile favorite but out of favour recently is DLF . . It seems that like RCom and Idea, it has also taken support at its previous lows near to Rs 254/-.



Currently quoting at Rs 262, I expect that a break above Rs 266 should lead us to Rs 284 initially and then to 300/- (if markets sustain).

Keep a stop near to Rs. 258 /-

Incidentally there are quite a few stocks which are turning positive (side counters) which may go up irrespective of market moves ... We shall take them up in next few days.

Happy Trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Ranbaxy . . not so healthy!

The Nifty gave good intraday movements and finally closed near to its open... Watch the 4960 level on downside and 5055 on upside. . .

Ranbaxy seems to be peaking out ... While it is hovering currently above Rs 400 level, we may expect that a break below 400/- could mean a longer down move for the stock.



On the daily charts, it is creating a H&S pattern and the pull back is currently in progress. . .

(I urge my workshop participants to compute the likely targets of the down move , if the Rs 400 level is broken!!)

Specific stocks are getting ripe for a directional move .. Watch out!

Happy Trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

ICICI Bank - at crucial support

The nifty movement today was 'boring' in morning but i am sure my intraday participants could comfortably at least get 50-60 points at the day end ...

The Nifty has broken below the crucial 5000 level (intraday level was 5025). A close below 5000 may be treated negative.

ICICI Bank has been one of the weaker banking stocks and I expect that it is near a major support level of Rs 795 in FUTURES.

Below chart is of ICICI BANK FUTURES


A break below this in futures should lead it towards 720 -700 levels. Those who may want to short sell may keep stoploss at Rs 830/- .....

Happy trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Monday, June 7, 2010

Is the WORLD changing trend ?

The Nifty, as expected, opened in down gap by more than 100 points and closed weak. Intraday traders got some scrip-specific moves (R Cap etc) but more or less other stocks remained dull.... Watch the Nifty 5000 level in Spot....

The recent turmoil in the word financial markets led me to check the MSCI World Index (which includes EM too)...

What we see is technically not encouraging . . The medium term trendline has been broken and the MSCI World Index seems to have the potential for another 7-8 % fall, before it gets some temporary support. . .



Upmoves in World markets in coming days should be treated corrective and I shall be keenly watching the Dow 9830 level which if breaks can mean further weakness ...

Like in case of the previous blogpost, I urge readers to start commenting so that this blog becomes more 'interactive'

Happy Trading !

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Saturday, June 5, 2010

DOW JONES - will it take us all down?

Friends,
I am sure you have read about the planned SuperTrader seminar at Ahmedabad (please see previous blogpost).

Well, the US markets and the European markets fell heavily yesterday and it seems we are not in for a good opening on Monday....

The recent down move in DOWJONES prompted me to check how the US Markets look from a 'very' long term perspective.

Below is a fifty-year chart of the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average). Phew, what a chart .... and what a developing pattern ... I urge my readers to 'tell me' what pattern they see !



Believe me friends, if this pattern does , what it does, the critics of technical analysis will have nowhere to hide . . .

I will expect your take on the pattern in the 'comment' section. . .

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Friday, June 4, 2010

SuperTrader Free Intro Seminar Ahmedabad

Dear Friends,

The Free Seminar giving details of the 'SuperTrader' Workshop Series is planned at AHMEDABAD on Sat 12th June 2010 at Gajjar Hall (Law Garden)at 11 am . . . .

Just spread the word friends !! Even if you are not from Ahmedabad, tell your friends / Brokers / collegues at Ahmedabad!

And the Baroda Semianr is tomorrow (Sat 5th June) 11 am at the Academy !
Thanks

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Thursday, June 3, 2010

Suzlon - Wind changes ahead ?

The Nifty opened in up gap and remained positive throughout the day.... But what rallied today was what I was constantly suggesting on this Blog - Telecom .... RCom / IDEA/ et al....

Well, one stock which is currently hovering around its previous low ... is SUZLON ...

The volume build up at the current lows is firming up and on a price rise with volume expansion in few days, the scrip should see some 'value buying'... Even on the Daily charts today there is a typical Candlestick pattern made - called the 'Bullish Haaraamee"



I expect that a break above Rs 57 should give a corrective move towards Rs 65+ levels . Keep a stoploss near Rs 53.

The SuperTrader Workshop series is starting on Mon 7th June ... So - Hurry up and get registered ! (Also planning SuperTrader Workshop series at Ahmedabad - Will inform on this blog once finalised).

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

MTNL .. time to connect !

While the NIFTY almost remained stagnant for most of the trading time, action was vibrant in few stocks.

I am sure my blog readers got hold of Rcom and IDEA and also the Sugar counters ! (I can already see the smile on your faces).....

Well, the Telecom sector is seeing buying interest at attractive levels and the one stock which is yet to move is MTNL.



Like its peers, RCom and IDEA, MTNL too is witnessing huge volumes near its previous low and this can be a chance to pick up a corrective upmove.

Watch for a break above Rs 57/- for an entry in this stock with a stop placed at Rs 52.50 for a target intially of Rs 68- Rs 72.

Happy Trading

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Nifty - Watch 4950 !

Hello Friends, I am back (after a long weekend) But while I was outstation, I managed to keep pace with the markets....

Today's big fall was as expected. Needless to say, my participants of intraday workshop would have surely traded downside and earned bigtime. . . (I was expecting a some of them to call me, but anyway).

Nifty has got the resistance as indicated and it has closed below the crucial 5000 level. A further weakness would be suggested by a close below 4945-4950 levels tomorrow. This is likely since world markets are likely to continue the weakness. . .



Moreover the weekly charts are still negative and they suggest that a weekly close below 4920 may make them further fragile.....

Resistance in upmoves is at 5010 - 5025 levels which may be used by 'long' traders to exit for the time being. . .

Happy Trading !

If you are interested in joining the SuperTrader workshop series, please register for a Free discussion seminar on Sat 5th June... This seminar will give you an overview of how the SuperTrader series will be beneficial for your trading and also brief you about the broad contents of the course....

Thanks

CA Rajiv D Khatlawala
www.investogyan.com